#Strategy拟回购股票 MSTR's original simplest narrative was: I never sell BTC, I use financing to buy BTC, BTC goes up, I win.

Now this system is getting more and more complex, using BTC as underlying collateral, layering leverage, dividends, and buybacks on top, making it more and more like a financial machine that needs constant resuscitation.
A few points:
First, BTC itself does not generate cash flow, but it has a bunch of things wrapped around it that require cash flow.
Preferred shares need to pay interest, debt needs to pay interest, and if the market doesn't buy it, dividends have to be raised. When BTC rises, it's fine; when BTC stagnates for a long time, it becomes very uncomfortable.
Second, a 12% dividend is no longer cheap.
If a preferred stock needs to offer 12% annualized to stabilize its price, it shows the market is starting to demand higher compensation. This is not a strong signal, but rather a sign of rising financing costs.
Third, they talk about buybacks but also say they won't use dollar reserves, essentially still relying on external funds.
Where does the money come from? Continue financing, issuing new instruments, or selling BTC. It sounds like "I want to stabilize debt, stabilize equity, and stabilize faith at the same time."
Fourth, once the channel to sell BTC is opened, the narrative changes.
Previously, everyone saw it as a permanent buyer of BTC. Now it becomes: when you need to maintain the capital structure, you can also sell.
This has a significant psychological impact on the faith-based investors.
The most painful issue is that this model basically won't blow up all at once, but instead enters a long-term chronic bleeding state over years.
When BTC continues to rise, all problems can be masked by the price.
But once BTC stagnates for a long time, financing costs, preferred stock dividends, market premium contraction, and cash reserve depletion will gradually eat away.
As for the market, the scenario of dropping for a year like 2022, buying the bottom, holding, and then quickly reaching new highs in a bull market basically doesn't exist.
It's good enough as long as it doesn't become an "old geezer" asset.
Just slowly wait it out~