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Jefferies: CLARITY Act Faces Key Senate Test, May Increase Crypto Market Volatility

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On June 30, investment bank Jefferies stated in its latest report that the U.S. CLARITY Act still faces significant legislative hurdles in the Senate, and upcoming legislative developments may increase volatility in the crypto market. Jefferies noted that although the bill previously passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, there are only about 20 legislative days left before the August congressional recess. The Senate still needs to complete the bill's consolidation, procedural voting, coordination with the House version, and submission for the President's signature, making the timeline very tight. Data from Polymarket indicates that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%. Jefferies believes that if the bill passes smoothly, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset management firms, and exchanges to accelerate their engagement in tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other businesses, as well as facilitating more crypto ETFs and IPOs of crypto infrastructure companies. If legislative delays occur, it could prolong regulatory uncertainty, causing traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain initiatives. The report anticipates that the progress of the bill will continue to impact the market performance of crypto-related stocks such as Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), and Bullish (BLSH), as well as certain crypto assets. Jefferies also pointed out that in the long term, compared to regulatory changes, the greater challenge faced by stablecoin issuer Circle remains competition from banks, fintech companies, and payment firms.
This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.
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