🔥 Tonight at 9 PM! Fed's new chair Warsh appears at the Global Central Bank Forum, alongside Lagarde and Bailey.

The market has already reacted in advance — the dollar index pulled to 101.357, ING said: if the speech continues to hammer inflation, the dollar may surge to 101.7-101.8.

On the other side, WTI$CL ‌ crude oil fell over 2% to $68.50, and Brent also broke $72.
Lower oil prices give inflation pressure a breather — this is theoretically not bad for risk assets, including our circle.

But tech stocks have already chickened out pre-market: Nvidia down 0.8%, Tesla down 0.7%, memory chips even worse, Micron$MU ‌ down nearly 3%, SanDisk down nearly 4%. Funds are clearly risk-off ahead of Warsh's speech.

Interestingly, Evercore analysts poured cold water — don't expect Warsh to give any forward guidance; he's already said forward guidance is useless. UBS also said the market's expectations for rate hikes this year might be too aggressive.

In other words — the market is afraid of something Warsh may not give at all.

🤔 Could the script go like this:
Market overpricing hawkishness → Warsh's speech not so hawkish → dollar pullback → risk asset rebound?
If this script actually plays out, our circle's resilience is much greater than traditional assets.

What do you think? Will Warsh be a hawk all the way tonight or give the market a "surprise"? Share your thoughts in the comments. 👇

Follow me for first-hand interpretation of Warsh's speech tonight.

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