After a 52-year absence, Congo returns to the World Cup and reaches the knockout stage. Drawing 1-1 with Portugal in the group stage was indeed impressive. However, in this Round of 16 match, the gap in strength is still too wide.

Key data speaks:

England is ranked 4th in FIFA, with a squad value of €1.32 billion; Congo is ranked 46th, with a value not in the same league. Opta's supercomputer simulated 25k times and gave England a 73.9% win probability. The betting odds are 1.17–5.13–12.50, with the handicap (-1) home win at 1.64. The bookmakers' stance is very clear.

Congo's weakness: They conceded in every group stage match. Although their expected goals against ranked 5th lowest, they have a record of conceding in every game. Facing England's multi-dimensional attack — Kane leading with 3 goals, Bellingham good at both passing and scoring — it will be hard to keep a clean sheet.

England's variables: Right-back Reece James is injured and out; Kwanza doubtful; Spence may fill in. The good news is Rice returns just in time for the knockout stage, and his comeback can regain control of the midfield.

Prediction: England 2-0 Congo

Congo's bus parking can hold out for a while, but a moment of brilliance from Kane or Bellingham will be enough to break the deadlock. The Three Lions will win steadily, advancing by two goals. #预测世界杯英格兰VS刚果