Will OUSD 'win' the stablecoin war?

Author: 蓝狐; Source: X, @lanhubiji

Is OUSD going to end the stablecoin war? No.

OUSD looks powerful. After all, it's not a single company going it alone—there are 140+ major companies (Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, Coinbase, Stripe, Shopify, Google, etc.) jointly building a "shared infrastructure" stablecoin.

Will it win the stablecoin war?

My personal opinion: It won't completely "win" the stablecoin war, but it can grab a piece of the pie.

In the stablecoin space, it will likely become one of the top five key players. Its main use case lies in enterprise payments and institutional adoption, but the probability of it dominating the entire market is low.

It can indeed seize a significant slice of the pie, mainly due to:

First, network effects. After all, 140+ giants are joining forces, directly bringing payment channels, merchants, and banking networks. Enterprises can mint and redeem infinitely with zero fees + share in reserve yields (most of the Treasury interest flows back to partners). This is extremely attractive to traditional finance and internet companies.

Second, precise positioning. Its main scenario isn't DeFi; it first targets scenarios like large-scale payments, settlements, and cross-border transactions in the "internet economy." In these scenarios, USDT/USDC fees and benefits may not align with players' interests, giving OUSD an opportunity to break in.

Third, clear regulation, making it easy for institutions to participate together. With strong institutional willingness to enter, the "shared infrastructure" model has a chance to roll out quickly.

At the same time, it won't dominate the market.

Why is that?

First, USDT has extremely strong liquidity—whether in trading volume, depth on CEXs, or adoption in emerging markets, it offers the best user experience for a certain period.

Second, USDC initially took a compliant path, with decent transparency, and will continue to see adoption by institutions and regulators. After OUSD's launch, Circle will undoubtedly feel pressure (which has already shown in prices). While OUSD squeezing its space is a fact, USDC won't be easily replaced.

Overall assessment:

OUSD may grab a large piece of the pie in areas like enterprise payments, remittances, merchants, and RWA, driving overall growth of stablecoin market share. But this is not the end for USDC/USDT. In the end, each will have its own use cases.

For example, USDT still has opportunities in crypto trading, speculation, DeFi, and emerging markets. USDC has opportunities in institutions, compliance, and DeFi. OUSD has greater development opportunities in enterprise scenarios (enterprises using stablecoins for large-scale payments, merchant settlements, cross-border transfers, etc.).

It's predictable that more stablecoins will be launched in the future.

Finally, do decentralized stablecoins still have a chance?

Yes, but for a long time, they will be mainly limited to DeFi and permissionless scenarios, primarily within the crypto field. They will find it difficult to defeat fiat-backed stablecoins in mainstream payments and large-scale adoption.

The success of truly decentralized stablecoins will only be possible after BTC/ETH reach at least tens of trillions of dollars in value, which requires a long evolution.

There is also a mutation scenario: depending on the speed and scale of AI+crypto integration. If it's fast and large, the development of decentralized stablecoins could also see a singularity moment.