Mr. Bieger’s Analysis: How Do You Spot the Real BTC Supercycle Bottom? Two Market Cost Bottom Signals with “High Win Probability”

The bear market has lasted for half a year, with AI and semiconductors stealing all the spotlight, leaving Bitcoin like a discarded piece thrown into the cold palace. However, cycle trader Mr. Beger believes that the emotional freezing point is often the fertile ground for brewing a bottom. This article shares two historically "100% win-rate" BTC bottom signals from the perspective of "market cost": the Realized Price is currently $53,461, and the Cointime Price is $51,885. Whenever BTC breaks below these two cost lines, history shows without exception that they are excellent entry points at the cycle level. This article is a column from the collaboration between Mr. Beger (@market_beggar) and the Dynamic Zone Academy Project.
(Previous background: Mr. Beger's analysis: BTC bear market progress is on its final mile)
(Background supplement: CryptoQuant founder: It's hard to say Bitcoin has bottomed; breaking below the realized price is key)

Key Takeaways

• Mr. Beger proposes two historically 100% win-rate BTC bottom signals from the perspective of "market cost": Realized Price and Cointime Price
• Realized Price is currently $53,461, representing the average cost of BTC held by the market; every time it breaks below, it's a cycle entry point
• Cointime Price is currently $51,885, incorporating a time-weighted design, derived from the "Cointime Economics" research by Ark Invest and Glassnode

The bear market has lasted for half a year. AI, semiconductors, and other themes have grabbed most of the market's attention. In contrast, BTC seems to have become a cast-off relegated to the cold palace.

If you're new to cryptocurrencies, you might start thinking "crypto is dead"; but in reality, every bear market in BTC's history has been accompanied by a dead silence, and history has repeatedly proven to us: "The emotional freezing point is the best breeding ground for a bottom."

So, has the bear market ended? Today, I plan to share two "100% win-rate" BTC bottom signals from the perspective of "market cost."

Indicator 1: Realized Price

The first indicator is the "Realized Price," which is a classic on-chain indicator for BTC. It represents the "average cost of BTC held by the market." The current Realized Price = $53,461.

As shown in the chart, I have marked every instance since BTC's inception where the price fell below the Realized Price with a green signal. We can see that "without exception, every time BTC breaks below the Realized Price, it is an excellent cycle-level entry point."

Chart: Bitcoin Realized Price is currently $53,461, with green markers indicating historical instances of breaking below | Source: Glassnode, Mr. Beger @market_beggar

Indicator 2: Cointime Price

The second indicator I want to share is the "Cointime Price." Among on-chain analyses, it is relatively niche but very rigorous and highly accurate.

This indicator comes from the "Cointime Economics" research jointly conducted by Ark Invest and on-chain data site Glassnode. It also assesses the "average market cost," but compared to the Realized Price, it incorporates a "time-weighted" design, giving greater weight to BTC holdings held for longer periods, thereby reducing noise interference from short-term trading. The current Cointime Price = $51,885.

As shown in the chart, I have marked every time since BTC's inception where the price fell below the Cointime Price with a yellow signal. From the chart, we can clearly see: "Whenever the price breaks below the Cointime Price, it is without exception a cyclical bottom for BTC."

Chart: Bitcoin Cointime Price is currently $51,885, with yellow markers indicating historical instances of breaking below | Source: Glassnode, Mr. Beger @market_beggar

Even though profit-seeking funds are rushing headlong into AI and semiconductors, while BTC has fallen to 59K in early June, you might feel despair at this scene and think crypto is dead. But as a cycle trader, what I see is the gradual emergence of a dawn.

If you still believe in BTC and that funds will eventually rotate, then after the future break below the Realized Price and Cointime Price, "buying when no one is interested" might be the best choice.

FAQs

What is Realized Price?

Realized Price is a classic on-chain indicator for Bitcoin, representing the average cost of BTC held by the market. Mr. Beger points out it is currently $53,461. Historically, whenever the BTC price breaks below this line, it is an excellent entry point at the cycle level.

What is the difference between Cointime Price and Realized Price?

Both assess the average market cost, but Cointime Price incorporates a "time-weighted" design, giving greater weight to holdings held for longer periods to reduce noise from short-term trading. It originates from the "Cointime Economics" research by Ark Invest and Glassnode and is currently at $51,885.

This article represents the views of the collaboration column author and is for reference only, not investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please carefully assess risks before investing.