CryptoQuant: Exchange Inflows Stay Elevated as Sustained SOPR Losses Continue; the Bitcoin Market Remains in a Risk-Off Mode

On July 1, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. released a report stating that the selling pressure currently facing the Bitcoin market is clearly higher than during the February downtrend phase, and two key on-chain indicators are reflecting a weak market structure at the same time.

Data shows that the 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange inflows has risen to 122k BTC. This is not only far above the annual baseline of 82k BTC, but it is also pressing toward the upper band of one standard deviation at 131k BTC.

Compared with the average level of about 80k BTC during the February sell-off, the average inflow of Bitcoin over the past 30 days is nearly 50% higher, indicating that a large amount of Bitcoin is continuously flowing into exchanges and that selling pressure in the market has significantly intensified.

Meanwhile, the 30-day average of the Bitcoin Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has fallen to 0.99 and has continued to stay below the key breakeven line of 1.0, suggesting that market participants are generally selling Bitcoin while at a loss.

Since May, this indicator has been in loss territory on 37 of the 61 days. In February, the SOPR was also at around 0.99, but exchange inflows at the time were far lower than they are now.

Taken together, the analysis of these two key indicators shows that the current market is experiencing losses of a similar magnitude while also facing a potential sell-off that is much larger in scale.

Overall, this double pressure indicates that the current market is not a one-off stress event, but a round of broad and ongoing selling, with market sentiment clearly bearish.

Therefore, for the market to stabilize, it must meet both conditions: the SOPR needs to rise back above 1.0, and exchange inflows must fall to a level above the annual baseline, so that a fundamental shift in the market trend can be confirmed.

#交易所比特币流入 #SOPR