BTC hit a new low since 2024, but is it still not a good time to buy the dip?

On July 1, BTC prices once dipped to $57,800, down more than 50% from the historical high of around $126k, and also hitting a new low since October 2024. Meanwhile, ETH is still fluctuating near the low of $1,600, and SOL's monthly chart has recorded an unprecedented 10 consecutive declines. The current market fear and greed index is 17, indicating extreme fear.

On the macro market front, the Nasdaq is still fluctuating at a high of 26,200, and the S&P 500 remains at a high of 7,500. Bitcoin has been correcting for nearly a year since October 2025. Why is BTC performing so poorly? It may be facing two major headwinds: massive net outflows from spot ETFs and disappointed rate cut expectations.

From mid-May to June 2026, Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced an unprecedented wave of capital outflows. Since May 1, Bitcoin spot has rarely seen only 9 days of net inflows, with generally small inflow amounts. Since early May, net inflows have not exceeded $140 million in a single day. Since May, there have been four days with net outflows exceeding $600 million, and consecutive days of large net outflows. Clearly, a large number of institutions and retail investors have been reducing their Bitcoin holdings through ETF channels, further amplifying spot selling pressure and making it difficult for prices to hold key support levels. Compared to the inflow peak in 2025, this structural capital reversal has become one of the most direct reasons for the current BTC adjustment.

Expectations for a Fed rate cut have also been disappointed. According to Kalshi data, the market currently places a 77.8% probability on the Fed staying put this year, and only a 19.6% probability of a single 25-basis-point rate cut.

With persistent inflationary pressures and geopolitical disruptions, market expectations for the Fed to maintain higher interest rates or even raise rates further are heating up. The high real yield environment significantly increases the attractiveness of holding cash or bonds, causing high-risk assets like Bitcoin to face capital competition.

The 10-year US Treasury yield hovering in a higher range, combined with macro uncertainty, further suppresses leveraged funds and risk appetite. Investors worry that if the Fed delays rate cuts or shifts to a hawkish stance, it will extend the adjustment cycle for risk assets.

Where is the bottom range for BTC?

As BTC continues to decline, the market begins to predict its bottom price. In 2018, the bear market bottom price (monthly average) of Bitcoin fell about 77% from the top (monthly average). In 2022, the bear market bottom price retreated 73% from the top. Assuming this round of BTC retreats 60% from $116.6k, the bottom might fall around $46k.

Glassnode co-founder: The bottom of this BTC cycle is likely in the range of $46k to $54k.

Glassnode co-founder Rafael tweeted that current institutional demand is not effectively absorbing the new supply of Bitcoin, but instead increasing selling pressure. Data shows that in the past month, ETF net outflows were 71.6k BTC, while digital asset treasury companies only added 7,500 BTC. After deducting issuance, the combined net outflow from ETFs and DATs reached 77k BTC. Until this net outflow turns positive, any price rebound will face sustained selling pressure. On June 5, Rafael pointed out (when BTC was around $62k) that the bottom of this BTC cycle is likely in the range of $46k to $54k. This range is mainly based on two on-chain indicators: Realized Price ≈ $54,000, serving as an important support for the overall cost basis of the market; and CVDD ≈ $46,200, with historical lows often forming 5%-18% above this level.

BIT: The bear market enters its final stage, $50k-$55k may become a key range.

In mid-June, BIT published an article stating that from a technical structure perspective, the top pattern in 2025 is highly similar to that in 2021. Both cycles experienced rapid surges, broke below the 21-week moving average, and then weakened again after a phased rebound. Historical experience shows that real bottoms often come with declining volume and narrowing consolidation ranges, not rapid reversals. Currently, the fear and greed index is at historical lows, and the stochastic indicator has entered deeply oversold territory.

Combined with Elliott Wave theory, since the start of the bear market in October 2025, Bitcoin has entered a typical A-B-C correction structure. With the B wave rebound ending in mid-May at $83,000, the current C wave decline is unfolding, with the target area likely near $50k, and the low point expected to appear around the FIFA World Cup (June 11 to July 19, 2026). Overall, this bear market is entering its final phase, and the $50k-$55k range may become the core bottom area of this bear market.

Wintermute: The crypto market has entered the late stage of the bear market, but the true bottom may not have arrived yet.

Wintermute recently released a report stating that current market sentiment has entered extreme fear, with the fear and greed index hovering between 18 and 24, and about half of Bitcoin's circulating supply is in unrealized loss, all close to historical bear market bottom characteristics. However, the report points out that what is truly lacking at this stage is renewed capital inflows. Spot ETFs have recently seen net outflows of about $1.8 billion, and stablecoin and other liquidity indicators have not yet improved. The report believes that Bitcoin reserve companies have begun to retain the right to sell BTC to pay dividends, meaning that the long-standing "permanent buying" is gradually turning into "conditional buying."

Wintermute expects that, due to historical seasonality, the crypto market is unlikely to complete a bottom during summer, and is more likely to see a real bottom around September to October. The subsequent trend will still depend on the macro environment, the cooling of the AI sector, and the return of capital flows to the crypto market.

JackYi: July to August may be the last bottom time for Bitcoin, and also the best time to buy the dip.

Liquid Capital founder JackYi tweeted, "This is the third wave of decline since October 11. If following wave theory and cycle patterns, this is the last big drop for Bitcoin. What everyone cares most about is the bottom price of this Bitcoin decline. The main factors are the US stock market and MicroStrategy. We don't know whether the Fed's concerns about CPI will trigger changes in rate cut or even rate hike expectations, thus causing a sustained correction in US stocks. Secondly, in past bear market tails, black swan events or blow-ups often occurred, and this time we haven't seen one yet, so we need to watch closely. Calculated from Bitcoin's high of $126,000, a 60% decline would be $51,000, and a 66% decline would be $43,000. In any case, July to August should be the last time, and the best time to buy the dip, even the most worthwhile opportunity in the next three years."

Jiang Zhuoer: This BTC bear market may bottom between October and December this year, with a price of about $42,000 to $44k.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder and CEO of BTCTOP mining pool, tweeted on June 25 that MSTR's mNAV has now dropped to 0.72, close to the historical low of 0.7 in May 2022, in the trough area of this cycle's mNAV. However, mNAV bottoming usually leads BTC price bottoming by about 6 months. The previous mNAV low corresponded to BTC around $31k, while the true bottom of BTC appeared in November 2022 at $15.5k. Based on the four-year cycle and mathematical models, he predicts that this round of BTC bear market will bottom between October and December this year, with a price range of about $42k to $44k.

Polymarket data: Probability of BTC falling below $40k this year is 30%.

Polymarket's latest data shows that the market is currently betting on a 79% probability of BTC falling below $55,000 this year, 65% probability of falling below $50,000, 30% probability of falling below $40k, 17% probability of falling below $35k, and 13% probability of falling below $30k. The trading volume of this prediction market has exceeded $45.42 million.$BTC ‌