Micron Today's Market Analysis

1. Core Fundamental Background

1) Strong long-term fundamentals: Q3 revenue of $41.46 billion, a 346% year-over-year increase, gross margin of 84.9%, significantly exceeding market expectations; Q4 guidance of $49–51 billion, HBM capacity fully sold out for the year, AI server storage demand remains tight, and the storage super cycle is expected to last at least until 2027.
2) Short-term bearish factors: Large cumulative gains in the earlier period, substantial short-term profits; volatility in the South Korean stock market triggered passive selling in the storage sector, with recent consecutive high-level pullbacks; pre-market decline of 3%, short-term bearish sentiment being released.
3) Institutional consensus target average price is $1,538, with the lowest target at $1,100; the current price is near the lower end of institutional targets, with limited downside room.

2. Technical Analysis (15-Minute Level)

1) Current price $1,118, price has broken below the MA10 moving average and is below the BBI bull-bear line at $1,125.82, indicating a clear short-term bearish structure.
2) 24-hour low of $1,115.97, which is the first strong support level; below that, the ultimate support is the psychological round number of $1,100.
3) First resistance above at $1,125 (BBI bull-bear line), second resistance at $1,140, strong resistance at $1,169 (intraday high).

3. Micron's Opening and Intraday Price Trend Prediction

(1) Opening

Pre-market decline of around 3%, U.S. stock market opens with a slight gap down, opening price range of $1,112–$1,116, directly testing the previous low support.

(2) Full-Day Trend by Phases

1) Early session:
Brief dip at open, testing the $1,115–$1,116 support level. If this level holds, short-term bearish momentum weakens, leading to a first small rebound; if it effectively breaks below $1,115, it will further test the $1,100 level.
2) Midday session:
Main battle range is $1,115–$1,125.

- If it stabilizes above $1,125 (BBI bull-bear boundary), the short-term trend shifts from bearish to range-bound, with a rebound target near $1,140;
- If it continues to face resistance below $1,125, the whole day will remain weak and range-bound, oscillating between $1,110 and $1,125.
3) Late session:
Ahead of the non-farm payrolls report, funds will not open large positions; the session ends sideways.
① Optimistic scenario: Bounce off support, closing with a narrowed decline to within 1%, forming a small doji or small positive candle;
② Pessimistic scenario: Support breaks, closing down 2.5%–3.5%, retesting the $1,100 round number.

4. Key Trade Reference Levels

- Strong support: $1,116, $1,100
- First resistance: $1,126 (BBI), second resistance $1,140, strong resistance $1,169

5. Overall Assessment

1) Long-term: Fundamentals have no bearish factors, the AI storage super cycle is confirmed; the decline is a profit-taking pullback at high levels, mid-term remains bullish;
2) Short-term (today's intraday): Relatively weak range-bound, mainly bottoming and consolidation, limited room for a big drop; levels below $1,100 are excellent short-term dip-buying zones;
3) Today's trading approach: Do not chase shorts; if support stabilizes, consider light long positions; add positions on a break above $1,126; then consider short-term shorts if it faces resistance above.