The non-farm payrolls haven't arrived yet, but the market took a heavy blow from the Fed first.

Hammack's statement, "Inflation hasn't stabilized, and another rate hike is not ruled out," directly shattered the dream of rate cuts.

Originally, everyone was betting that there would be no rate hikes throughout 2026, but now the probability of a rate hike in September has been pushed to 80%.

The market is also honest: the dollar surged, and gold and silver couldn't hold up first.

USD/JPY directly hit 162.7, and precious metals are clearly starting to reverse.

BTC didn't fully follow the decline either, but to be honest, being resilient to declines doesn't mean it's safe.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $57,830, still down 2.5% in 24 hours, and 58,000 has been lost.

In the short term, first see if 57,500 can hold. If it can't, 55,000 will be the next major test.

Above, 59,000 is still heavily pressured. Don't rush to go long before it firmly holds.

The most critical thing in this wave is not whether it goes up or down, but whether the non-farm payrolls will give the Fed an excuse to continue being hawkish.

If the data is strong, the dollar will likely continue to strengthen, and both BTC and gold will remain under pressure.

If the data is weak, the market will immediately change its tune, and the rebound will come quickly.

So the most important thing now is not to guess the direction, but to wait for confirmation.

What is most feared in this position is getting emotional; with a heavy position, a fluctuation can easily sweep you out.

One sentence summary: On the eve of the non-farm payrolls, the market is not trading prices, it is trading expectations.

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