Bitunix Analyst: Interest rate hike expectations continue to heat up, market awaits non-farm payrolls and central bank signals for verification.

Mars Financial News, July 1 — Global markets continue to reassess monetary policy. U.S. May JOLTs job openings came in higher than market expectations, indicating resilience in the labor market. Fed official Harker stated that inflation remains above target and does not rule out the need for another rate hike in the future. Interest rate futures have now priced in roughly an 80% probability of a rate hike in September. Markets will next focus on this week’s non-farm payrolls report and Fed Chair Warsh’s first public speech at the Global Central Bank Forum, hoping to further confirm the Fed’s latest views on inflation, employment, and the subsequent policy path.

Beyond U.S. policy, the Japanese market has also become a focal point for global capital flows. Japan’s latest Tankan survey shows improvements in both business confidence and inflation expectations, with market expectations for another rate hike by the Bank of Japan this year continuing to rise. However, the Japanese government confirmed that it did not intervene in the foreign exchange market from late April to late May, and the yen remains oscillating near its four-decade low, reflecting that market pricing of the U.S.-Japan interest rate differential still dominates. If Japan accelerates rate hikes or the authorities re-engage in FX intervention, it could impact global carry trades and cross-market capital flows, causing renewed volatility in the global liquidity environment.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin remains in a range-bound consolidation, with market funds taking a relatively cautious stance. At this stage, the market is no longer focused solely on individual economic data points but on whether the Fed will further confirm its high-interest-rate policy and whether Japan’s monetary policy will alter global funding costs and liquidity allocation. Until these macro variables become clearer, risk assets are expected to maintain an event-driven volatile pattern. The upcoming non-farm payroll data, Warsh’s remarks, and changes in BOJ policy expectations will all be key directions for ongoing market observation.