Sintra Central Bank Forum Opens Tonight, Warsh's Overseas Debut Attracts Attention

Tonight 21:00-21:30, the ECB Sintra Forum will host a policy roundtable with Fed's Warsh, ECB's Lagarde, BOE's Bailey, and BOC's Macklem in a panel discussion.

This is Warsh's first overseas public speech since becoming Fed Chair in May. He has always opposed excessive forward guidance and has previously stated that he will not pre-determine the interest rate path. This time, he is likely to only share macro analysis logic, making it difficult to give clear policy signals.

The US core PCE rose to 3.4%, a new high since October 2023. The market is closely watching how Warsh interprets inflation and whether he will maintain a hawkish stance. His tough stance is intended to suppress US Treasury yields and ease borrowing cost pressure.

All four central bank governors are veterans of the 2008 financial crisis, having participated in their respective countries' financial bailout efforts. Now they must address new issues such as recurring inflation, AI bubbles, and geopolitical turmoil. The discussion will also cover industrial innovation and financial risk prevention.

Lagarde has already justified this month's rate hike in her opening speech. Tonight's remarks are unlikely to change market pricing; the real key variable is Thursday's non-farm payroll data. Before the data is released, the pattern of a strong dollar and pressured gold may continue.$BTC #Sharplink增持1万枚ETH