Buying brokerages = buying tech? Changxin, Unitree, and others are lining up to go public, and brokerages are ushering in a “banner year for investment banking.”

The IPO wave of hard-tech companies is reshaping the investment logic of brokerages. As star projects like Changxin Technology, Yushu Technology, and Yangtze Memory Technologies successively advance their listing processes, the market's pricing narrative for the brokerage sector is undergoing a fundamental shift—from a simple "bull market flag bearer" to a "discounted tech stock basket" holding a large number of hard-tech equity stakes.

On Wednesday, the A-share brokerage sector surged again, with multiple stocks such as Tianfeng Securities, Guosheng Securities, and Huaan Securities hitting their daily limits, and the financial sector overall strengthened. This rally is not an isolated event. According to a previous report from Shanghai Securities News, the key change in this round of the market is the rapidly spreading trading logic of "buying brokerages equals buying a basket of discounted tech stocks."

The core driver behind this narrative iteration is the mandatory co-investment system for the STAR Market and the deep布局 of hard-tech equity stakes by top-tier brokerages. In its latest in-depth industry report, Kaiyuan Securities pointed out, "This round's main line for investment banks is not simply an IPO cycle recovery, but a revaluation of the brokerage business model driven by accelerated tech asset securitization." Guosheng Securities estimates that since 2026, the STAR Market and ChiNext have collectively seen 20 new listings, with total actual fundraising of 30.3 billion yuan, and underwriting and sponsorship fees totaling 1.7 billion yuan. CITIC Securities, Guotai Haitong, and CICC rank among the top three in revenue.

Currently, the valuation of the brokerage sector remains at historical lows. According to data from Guosheng Securities, as of the close on June 26, the price-to-book (PB) ratio of the brokerage sector was only 1.20 times, at a historical low. Meanwhile, the average daily turnover of A-share stocks and funds reached 3.19 trillion yuan, and margin trading volumes have consistently remained above 2.5 trillion yuan. The divergence between fundamental prosperity and valuation is attracting sustained capital inflows.

The Co-Investment System Opens Up "STAR Market Innovation Attributes," Investment Banking Logic Fully Upgraded

The institutional foundation supporting the logic of "buying brokerages equals buying tech stocks" is the mandatory co-investment rule of the STAR Market. According to current regulations, all IPO projects on the STAR Market require the sponsoring brokerage's alternative investment subsidiary to co-invest; the ChiNext board imposes differentiated constraints on four types of companies, including unprofitable ones, requiring sponsoring institutions to participate in co-investment. The co-investment ratio ranges from 2% to 5% based on issuance size, with a lock-up period of 24 months.

The market effect of this mechanism has been confirmed by data. Choice data shows that since 2025, 30 listed companies have landed on the STAR Market. Based on the closing price on June 26, more than 70% of the co-investment positions currently show floating profits exceeding IPO underwriting and sponsorship underwriting fees. According to estimates from Guotai Haitong Securities, the average first-day gain for STAR Market new stocks in 2025 is between 200% and 260%; if the total IPO scale on the STAR Market in 2026 is 31.9k yuan and the average co-investment ratio of brokerages is 3%, the total co-investment capital from the industry would be about 25k yuan. Based on historical gains, the corresponding expected floating profit for brokerages could reach 1.8B yuan, with the peak quarterly floating profit from co-investment for top brokerages potentially exceeding 70 billion yuan.

Shanghai Securities News quoted Sun Ting, chief non-bank analyst at Dongwu Securities, who stated that under the STAR Market and ChiNext co-investment systems, the logic of investment banking has shifted from the traditional underwriting and sponsorship fee model to a full life-cycle service model of "industrial insight—project acquisition—capital empowerment—value realization." Guo Jianzhong, deputy general manager of Caitong Capital, also stated that through the investment arm, brokerages deeply tie up with high-quality hard-tech companies at the B round or earlier, thereby securing sponsorship and other investment banking business. The core linkage model of "investment + investment banking" has become an industry standard practice.

The Investment Banking Cycle Is Still at the Bottom, Accelerated Concentration Toward Leaders

Despite rising market sentiment, the current investment banking business is still in the early stages of recovery from a cyclical trough, with significant upside potential. According to Kaiyuan Securities data, the total IPO scale in the market in 2025 was 131.8 billion yuan, only 22% of the peak of 586.9 billion yuan in 2022. It is estimated that the A-share IPO scale in 2026 will be about 200 billion yuan, 37% of that in 2021, still in a low range after the previous high-cycle period.

Meanwhile, the concentration of IPO business toward leading institutions continues to strengthen. The market share of IPO business for the "Three Zhong Yi Hua and Guotai Haitong" has increased from 52% to 55% between 2020 and 2022 to 73% in 2025 and 58% in the first half of 2026. In terms of profitability, the operating profit margin of the investment banking business for top brokerages recovered from 19% in 2024 to 37% in 2025, but there is still room for recovery from the high prosperity level of about 50% in 2020–2021.

From a revenue structure perspective, in 2025, the proportion of large investment banking revenue for CICC and CSC was 22% and 18%, respectively, while other top brokerages were around 15%. In terms of profit contribution, CICC's large investment banking business contributed about 19% of profit, up 3 percentage points year-on-year; CSC, Guotai Haitong, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities contributed about 15%, all achieving significant growth compared to 2024, mainly benefiting from the turnaround in profit contributions from direct investment and co-investment.

Guosheng Securities pointed out that since 2026, the STAR Market and ChiNext have collectively welcomed 20 new stocks, with cumulative raised funds accounting for 43.12% of total A-share IPO fundraising this year. These new stocks are mainly concentrated in high-end manufacturing fields such as electronic equipment, components, and integrated circuits. Among them, CITIC Securities undertook 7 projects, accumulating underwriting and sponsorship fees of 664 million yuan; Guotai Haitong sponsored 6 companies, earning 436 million yuan; CICC sponsored 4 companies for listing, earning 234 million yuan.

Changxin Technology: Dissecting a "Large Investment Banking Chain" Sample

The IPO of Changxin Technology is the best sample for observing how tech asset securitization feeds back into the large investment banking business of brokerages. This leading domestic DRAM memory chip company integrates R&D, design, and manufacturing. By capacity, shipment volume, and sales, it has become the largest in China and the fourth largest globally. It plans to raise a total of 29.5 billion yuan, making its fundraising scale the second largest since the establishment of the STAR Market, second only to SMIC. On May 17, 2026, the company updated its prospectus. For the first quarter of 2026, net profit attributable to the parent was 24.76 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1,688%, and the mid-report performance guidance indicates net profit attributable to the parent exceeding 50 billion yuan.

Kaiyuan Securities conducted a detailed calculation of the brokerage benefit chain from the Changxin Technology IPO, covering three levels: underwriting, co-investment, and direct investment:

On the underwriting side, based on an underwriting fee rate of 1.5%, the total underwriting and sponsorship fee for Changxin Technology is about 440 million yuan. As joint sponsors, CICC and CSC each earn about 220 million yuan in underwriting revenue. Underwriting income is relatively certain, but compared to direct investment and co-investment, its contribution to current profit elasticity is more stable. The core value lies in providing access to high-quality assets and industrial customer stickiness.

On the co-investment side, assuming an issuance price of 3.5 yuan per share, the single co-investment amount at a 2% co-investment ratio is 744 million yuan. Under a 2 trillion yuan market cap assumption, the single co-investment floating profit is about 5.3 billion yuan; under a 3 trillion yuan market cap assumption, the floating profit could reach 8.3 billion yuan. It should be noted that co-investment returns have a 24-month lock-up period, introducing uncertainty in the timing of final profit contribution.

On the direct investment side, the elasticity is greatest. After looking through, China Merchants Securities and Huaan Securities hold the largest number of Changxin Technology shares among brokerages. Under a 2 trillion yuan market cap assumption, combining direct investment and co-investment, China Merchants Securities' theoretical return is about 13.2 billion yuan, CSC about 7.6 billion yuan, Huaan Securities about 6.9 billion yuan, CICC about 5.4 billion yuan, GF Securities about 1.6 billion yuan, Guotai Haitong about 1.5 billion yuan, and Founder Securities about 1.1 billion yuan.

Kaiyuan Securities noted that the above direct investment and co-investment returns are not fully reflected in the current profit statement due to stock lock-up periods; there will be a certain discount in the current period. This is for reference only.

Ample Hard-Tech IPO Pipeline, Sustainable Prosperity Expected

Apart from Changxin Technology, the hard-tech IPO pipeline is also worth noting. Yushu Technology plans to raise 4.2 billion yuan and has been submitted to the CSRC, sponsored by CITIC Securities. Yangtze Memory Technologies completed the filing for coaching acceptance on May 19, 2026, jointly sponsored by CITIC Securities and CSC. Super Fusion Digital Technology plans to raise 8 billion yuan and has entered the inquiry stage. Suiyuan Technology plans to raise 6 billion yuan and has been submitted to the CSRC.

In terms of project pipeline, top brokerages have significant advantages. According to Kaiyuan Securities data, from 2025 to May 2026, CITIC Securities and Guotai Haitong each had 23 non-Beijing Stock Exchange IPO projects, ranking first and second in the industry. In terms of STAR Market project fundraising scale, CITIC Securities ranked first with 23.4 billion yuan, followed by Guotai Haitong, CICC, CSC, and Huatai Securities.

Regarding co-investment floating profits, from June 2024 to June 2026, CITIC Securities accumulated co-investment floating profits of 3.17 billion yuan, Guotai Haitong 1.88 billion yuan, CSC 1.33 billion yuan, CICC 1.22 billion yuan, and Huatai Securities 790 million yuan. Kaiyuan Securities pointed out that during periods of tech stock rallies and intensive hard-tech IPO progress, such floating profits have a more significant marginal contribution to brokerage profit elasticity.

Kaiyuan Securities believes that this round of the large investment banking theme has three layers of logic: short-term performance flexibility, medium-term project pipeline, and long-term upward shift in the ROE center.

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