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Strategist: Current Threshold for Japan's Immediate Yen Intervention is Slightly High

AirdropBlackHole
On June 30, JPMorgan strategist Ikue Ito stated that if the Japanese Ministry of Finance adopts the 'covert intervention' method used in 2024, the intervention trigger point may currently be higher. She noted that the limited effectiveness of the last intervention might make the Ministry more cautious about entering the market too quickly, and pointed out that Tuesday's movements indicated that stop-loss and options barriers around the 162-162.50 area had been triggered. State Street Global Advisors' senior fixed income strategist, Masika, mentioned that the breakout above 162 reinforces the view that the yen's depreciation is driven by momentum, with the market currently viewing the 163-165 range as the next key technical level and psychological target, where positioning and policy risks will become sharper. He indicated that ahead of the non-farm payroll data release, the threshold for immediate intervention appears slightly high, as authorities may prefer to assess whether the dollar's strength is driven by fundamentals. Speculative positions remain heavily bearish. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that as of the week ending June 23, leveraged funds increased their short positions in the yen to 115,033 contracts, close to the highest level since November 2017.
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