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Goldman Sachs raises 2027 HBM price forecast by over 3 times, DDR5 price increase acceleration slows down
Deep Tide TechFlow News, according to Tide Research, Goldman Sachs released the DRAM sentiment index monthly report on June 30, with 7 out of 9 indicators positive, maintaining a "moderately positive" sentiment. DDR5 16Gb spot prices have risen 20% since May 1, with a 25% premium over contract prices; DDR4 8Gb rose 11%, with a 45% premium.
South Korea's May DRAM export value hit a record high, up 370% year-on-year. Nanya Technology's May revenue increased 730% year-on-year, marking 10 consecutive months of triple-digit growth.
Samsung's DRAM ASP increase acceleration is slowing. Goldman Sachs estimates that ASP in Q2 2026 will rise about 46% quarter-on-quarter, a significant drop of 48 percentage points from Q1's 93%.
China's mainland mobile phone shipments in May increased 19% year-on-year, with positive growth for two consecutive months. However, Goldman Sachs warns that Q2 shipments may fall 14% quarter-on-quarter due to storage price hikes raising overall device costs.
Goldman Sachs sharply raised its 2027 Samsung HBM price growth forecast from +14% to +44%, citing that the tight balance in traditional DRAM is being transmitted to HBM annual pricing through price spreads, with further upside risks. Samsung Electronics maintains a buy rating, with a target price of 480k won for common shares and 360k won for preferred shares.