July 1 eth Operation Thoughts

Yesterday ETH, low-level small fluctuations. In the early session it once declined rapidly, but then the market stabilized again.

On the fundamentals, U.S. President Trump is weighing whether to return to full-scale war with Iran. Recently, he has held multiple talks with Secretary of Defense Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Caine regarding further strikes, but has currently decided not to take military action against Iran and instead continue promoting diplomatic negotiations.
Additionally, interest rate futures show that the probability of a Fed rate hike in September has risen to 80%. Tonight, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will attend the European Central Bank's "Global Central Bank Forum" in Portugal on Wednesday and participate in a panel discussion. The market is trying to capture his policy stance from this.

On the technical side, the current 4-hour bearish trend continues. The hourly-level rebound adjustment broke down slightly yesterday, touched the 1550 platform support level, and then began to oscillate and rebound at low levels in the evening, with the main resistance now becoming 1590. In terms of today's thinking, still wait for a bearish signal; yesterday saw the first segment of the downtrend. If the hourly line breaks below 1550, the third segment of the main downtrend will begin.

In terms of operation, if the hourly line breaks below 1550, look for a short position, stop loss at 1595, targets 1505, 1425, 1391; if the current price breaks above 1590, then wait and observe.

Specific operation details will be explained in detail in the evening live broadcast!!