Capital efficiency has declined, but the macro narrative is just beginning—the key is whether Bitcoin can evolve from a toy to a central bank reserve.

Ki Young Ju points out that although Bitcoin’s capital efficiency has declined, historically much smaller amounts of capital were enough to trigger big rallies. However, this cycle requires much larger net inflows in order to recreate a parabolic bull market. Compared with gold, Bitcoin still has significant potential, and where it goes next will depend on the inflow of hundreds of trillions of dollars; Bitcoin needs to shift from retail-driven ETF trading to becoming a core macro asset, and institutional adoption must grow explosively.