#日元跌至40年低点 According to the latest data from July 1, 2026, the USD/JPY exchange rate briefly rose to 162.68, indeed hitting a nearly 40-year high.

Although the Bank of Japan just raised interest rates to 1% (the highest since 1995) and deployed nearly 12 trillion yen for intervention, it proved almost futile in the face of the huge US-Japan interest rate differential.

Core contradiction: Interest rate gap

· Root cause: US interest rates (about 3.5%-3.75%) are much higher than Japan's (1%). This differential has fueled "carry trades" (borrowing low-yield yen to buy high-yield dollars), continuously selling off the yen.
· Intervention failure: Japanese authorities' interventions only lead to brief rebounds, followed by continued declines; the market has gradually become "desensitized" to verbal warnings.

Chain reactions and expectations

· Domestic impact: Yen depreciation pushes up import prices for energy and food, increasing the burden on people's livelihoods and putting pressure on the government.
· Future outlook: Institutions predict that as long as the Fed does not cut rates, the depreciation pressure on the yen will be hard to ease. JPMorgan expects it to fall to 164 by year-end. The market is watching whether the 162-163 range is the next intervention warning line.