#BTCProbes60KKeySupportLevel

#BTC
If things are frustrating and difficult so far, get used to the idea that it may become more challenging before it gets better.
Bitcoin is forming its bottom within a range, just as it did during the last two market cycles.
A bottom range is usually accompanied by low volatility, which is a result of near-zero market interest.
The hardest part of such a range is not necessarily the downward movement, but the possibility that Bitcoin spends months moving sideways without doing much.
Looking at two cycles ago, Bitcoin took about 120 days to form its bottom. In the last cycle, it took about 63 days, if we only measure the period below $20,000.
Of course, there are multiple scenarios in play.
The base scenario is the one I've been discussing for a while: a fakeout below $60,000, possibly reaching the $50K –$48,000 area in the worst case, where we might stay for the next 1 to 4 months.
From a technical perspective, if we lose $60,000, the next support is around $48,000–$50,000. If that fails, the next level is $40,000, and below that $30,000, and so on.
My opinion remains unchanged until proven otherwise. Among all possible scenarios, I still think the first one has the highest probability—that we have now entered the fakeout phase below $60,000, where the bottom range begins.
What is extremely important (and something many don't understand) is that it's simply impossible to predict the exact bottom.
These scenarios are just a framework. Whether Bitcoin drops to $50,000, $40,000, or goes straight up to $100,000, the chart is the only thing that will tell us. We simply watch each key level as it comes.
When it comes to accumulation, every long-term investor accepts the opportunity cost regardless of which scenario ultimately plays out.
The only time we will be able to say with a high degree of confidence that Bitcoin has formed its bottom is when it reclaims the 50-week moving average (MA50), the "Noodle", and the EMA ribbon on the weekly chart. Until then, every lower price level remains a possibility.
Another important level to watch is $65,000–$66,000. If Bitcoin can reclaim a close above that area on the weekly timeframe, that would be the first real sign of strength.
At the same time, for my main scenario to remain valid, the weekly RSI needs to continue forming bullish divergence and avoid making a new lower low (LL).
If this bullish divergence is invalidated, then this is likely not the real bottom range. Instead, the actual bottom will likely form at lower levels, where a new bullish divergence may start to develop.
Summary:
1. I do not expect a V-shaped recovery, although I would certainly like to see one.
2. Any price below $60K is an easy long-term buy for anyone looking to accumulate.
3. I am not worried at all, but even I am starting to feel frustrated... which is completely normal.
4. Whether you bought Bitcoin at $60,000, $50,000, $48,000, or $63,000, it won't matter much when it trades at $200,000.