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Nomura Securities raises target prices for nine semiconductor companies, 2028 becomes new peak of AI cycle.

DeepFlowTech
Shenchao TechFlow news, according to Chaoxiang Research, Nomura Securities confirms that the AI cycle peak is extended to 2028. Global data center construction has just begun to ramp up, with the number of projects increasing from 240 to 280, and gigawatt-level projects from 40 to 50. The deployment peak will not start to decline until after 2027, and the entire cycle has been pushed back. Server market growth rates have been significantly revised upward, with global rates rising from 43% to 74%/65% (2026/2027), and AI servers from 58% to 78%/76% (2026/2027), indicating that capacity demand far exceeds previous expectations. But there are real bottlenecks on the capacity side: wafer-on-substrate (WoS) has become a constraint, with TSMC's capacity target at 2,000kpcs, while Nomura estimates actual output at only 1,800kpcs. In addition, CPU demand has been systematically underestimated, with AMD, Arm, and Nvidia all expanding the CPU market, which will further prolong the cycle.
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