Galaxy Futures: Bagging Volume Increases, Apple Prices Fluctuate

For this year’s apples, we believe the fundamentals are bearish. Judging by the bagging volume data from third-party institutions, the number of bags has increased this year. Mysteel estimates that 2026 apple output will be approximately 40.6193 million tons, up 3.2559 million tons versus the 2025 bagging estimate, representing a year-on-year increase of 8.71%; it is also up 18.37% versus the final 2025 contracted production data.

Zhuochuang data: Based on bagging volume and fruit diameter performance, this year’s expected output is 40.1168 million tons, up 17.18% year on year. Compared with the average of the past five years, it is up 4.1312 million tons, a growth rate of 11.48%. Judging from the current production forecast figures, this year’s overall apple output is clearly higher than last year and above the past five-year average.

On the demand side, in the near term, shipments of cold-stored apples are in the off-season, and shipment volumes are relatively low. The shipment volume for the latest week of apples was 1.487 million tons. In addition, when looking at substitute fruits, this year’s summer fruit prices are relatively weak. This year’s new-season early-ripening apples, including Tengmu No. 1 and Guangguo Chenyang, are being supplied to the market in a sporadic manner, and mainstream prices are lower than last year.

However, apples are still in the growth season, so the final year-over-year increase in production still has significant variability. Therefore, we can see that once prices fall to around 7300–7400, many shorts take profits and close positions. As a result, we believe that the apple October contract is likely to trade in a broad range in the short term, with relatively limited upside and downside room.

In terms of strategy, it is recommended to set up short positions on rallies, sell high and close low, and conduct rolling operations. (Galaxy Futures)