Yang Guang bit | July 1 $BTC Precise strategy, full trend grasp

Core Conclusion
BTC tested 57,750 last night, hitting a new low before starting an oversold recovery bounce. The larger bearish trend has not reversed. This round of rebound is entirely driven by short covering, lacking incremental capital and spot buying support throughout. The bullish counterattack is limited, with multiple layers of resistance from moving averages and trapped positions above. Overall, it remains a weak recovery within a downtrend continuation, with further downside breach potential. Today's operations focus on shorting on bounces.

Today's Strategy
Entry timing: price rebounds to the 59,300–59,500 range
Add short positions: rise to the 59,800–60,000 range
Stop loss set above 60,300

Staged Take Profit
Short first target: 58,300–58,000
Short second target: 57,500–57,200

Market Logic Breakdown
1. News: Bearish tone unchanged, no reversal-level positive news
On the macro level, the Fed's hawkish expectations continue to suppress risk assets. The net outflow pattern of BTC spot ETF funds has not reversed, and institutions are not bottom-fishing. There is no substantial positive catalyst in the market. The rebound lacks fundamental support, making a trend reversal difficult.
2. Capital: Short covering drives the rebound, incremental capital absent
This round of rebound is entirely driven by short profit-taking, with no large-scale bottom-fishing capital entering the spot market. The foundation of the rebound is weak. The funding rate in the derivatives market has recovered only modestly, open interest has not rebounded significantly, and bulls lack the willingness to chase highs. After consolidation, the downtrend will continue. $BTC ‌#Strategy拟回购股票