What changed my view on BTC today wasn’t the 2% drop—it's that despite the 2% drop, nobody panicked.

Sometime after 9 AM, I kept watching the order book. To be honest, I originally thought that after last night’s breakdown below 60k, the Asian session would continue to see selling pressure and stampedes. But it didn’t.

Instead, a signal appeared that I actually prefer to see—the price was probing lower, but trading volume wasn’t expanding along with it.

What does that mean?

It means that the people who truly wanted to sell had already sold most of their position last night.

Now the market has moved into another phase.

It’s not about who is more panicked.

It’s about who has more patience.

Recently, everyone’s been talking about ETF outflows. I think many people have the focus wrong. ETF outflows are certainly bearish, but the real issue isn’t the outflows themselves—it's that with so much outflow happening, why is BTC still holding in this range?

I’d rather interpret it as the area has already started to see people picking up the shares that institutions are dumping.

At least for now, the bears can still push down the price, but they can no longer suppress sentiment.

These are two completely different concepts.

Technically, I didn’t see a reversal today.

The daily chart is still weak—no need to fool ourselves.

But there’s one detail on the 4-hour chart worth noting: after several consecutive attempts to probe lower lows, the bears’ efficiency keeps getting worse. If today’s North America and Europe session still can’t break below yesterday’s low, then I’ll start to suspect that this round of decline may already be entering its final segment.

Of course, I won’t flip to long just because of this detail.

My trading habit has always been: I’d rather buy a bit more expensive than buy the wrong way.

So my plan for today is simple.

If the Asian session continues to hold this range, I’ll wait to see whether the North America and Europe session can mount a volume-backed rebound. If the North America and Europe session keeps selling with volume and breaks down again, then I’ll continue waiting—I won’t rush to catch it.

Many people think trading is about guessing the direction.

More and more, I feel that trading is actually about waiting for the market to eliminate wrong answers one by one.

Today, I haven’t seen the bulls win.

But I’m starting to see that the bears aren’t as comfortable as they were a few days ago
$BTC ‌
#特朗普披露持有超1亿美元BTCETH