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Q2 closed. S&P +14%, Nasdaq +20%, Dow at record highs — the strongest quarter since the pandemic; on the surface, the broad market looks fine.
But when you break it down, it gets interesting. BTC halved in a year (120k → 58k), Gold stuck at $4000 for two months unable to break above, 10Y at 4.46%. In the same quarter, a tech stock rally and risk asset selloff can happen simultaneously — this kind of divergence wasn't common before.
Today starts with ADP, tomorrow is Nonfarm. Warsh's first full data week after taking office — 48 hours will basically determine July's move. Last month ADP was +122k, this time expectations are around +150k; if it beats, rate hike odds will jump further.
Watch more, act less this week. Market closed Friday, so positions will be concentrated on Thursday.
#SP500 #比特币 #Fed