Gold Market Core View Summary

1. Major Trend Judgment:
From the daily chart perspective, gold has formed a clear descending channel since the conflict in March. The overall trend for the second half of the year is "rebound followed by continued decline." The probability of hitting a new high of 5600 within the year is extremely low, and the conditions for a long-term reversal upward are not in place.
Core logic: The macro background and momentum that previously supported gold's rise have fundamentally reversed, and the old reference logic for the uptrend is no longer valid.

2. Short-Term Trend Analysis:
4-hour level: Gold prices have formed a slow descending channel below 4200. After breaking below 3940, the rebound was relatively weak, eventually closing below the channel. The short-term trend is weak, and the rebound is merely an episode in the downtrend.
1-hour level: Yesterday morning, gold prices rapidly dropped from 4020 to 3940. During the European session, the decline did not continue, and prices rebounded near 4065 before retreating in the early morning. Overall, prices remain suppressed by the descending trend line from last week's high of 4200.

3. Key Levels and Trading Reference:
Upper resistance: Focus on 4065. This level is the key to whether the short-term downtrend structure changes. If prices reclaim this level, the downtrend structure may alter, and a rebound could be anticipated. Before a breakout, any rebound remains short-term.
Lower support: After 3970 was lost, the effectiveness of support at 3940 has diminished. If 3940 is broken, prices are likely to accelerate downward below 3900.

4. Trading Tips:
The overall direction is to short on rebounds. Short-term rebounds can be tested with light long positions, but strict position management is required. Do not treat short-term rebounds as a long-term reversal.
Set strict stop-losses, monitor key breakouts at 4065 and 3940, and trade with the trend.

Risk Warning: The above is a personal view, for reference only, and does not constitute any trading advice. Financial management involves risks; invest with caution.
$XAUUSD ‌