BTC/ETH Morning Forecast | 2026.07.01 07:50

Yesterday's Review: In yesterday's public forecast, the core judgment for BTC was that without a firm hold above 60000~60300, it was not a strong recovery, and a drop below 59400 would prioritize defense. Looking at the actual movements, BTC peaked near 60049, failed to reopen the space above 60300, then fell back to around 58188 at its lowest, so the defense path was largely realized. ETH yesterday focused on the 1580 watershed; only a return above 1605 would indicate continued recovery. In reality, it peaked at 1599, failed to hold above 1605, and dropped to around 1550 at its lowest, indicating that ETH's recovery strength also failed to follow through. For altcoin rhythm, yesterday's guidance was to stay inactive and prioritize defense, which matched the actual situation. Today, one must acknowledge that the overall market is weaker than expected in yesterday's morning session, so offensive expectations should be further lowered today.

Overall Judgment for Today: BTC and ETH are both not showing strong reversals; instead, they are attempting low-level recovery after breakdowns. BTC is currently around 58560, down about 2.10% in 24 hours; ETH is around 1575, down about 1.21% in 24 hours. Both have somewhat stabilized after approaching the lower edge of short-term cycles, but the 4-hour and daily moving averages are still pressing from above, with no significant increase in volume. Today, the market will be treated as weak and range-bound. Altcoins as a whole should remain inactive and defense-oriented. Only if BTC reclaims 58800~59200 and ETH reclaims 1580~1595 will the short-term elasticity of smaller coins become more credible.

BTC: Current price around 58560, 24-hour range 58188~60049. On the 1-hour structure, the price has slightly recovered after approaching the lower Bollinger Band, and the short-term MACD is converging negatively, but it is still below the 1-hour middle Bollinger Band around 58825, indicating only a weak recovery, not a strong bullish turn. The 4-hour structure remains bearish, with the lower Bollinger Band around 58425 and the middle band around 59650, with near-term resistance still close. The daily chart is still in a low area after a major pullback, with the daily lower Bollinger Band around 57620 and MA20 around 62458; the trend pressure has not been lifted. Short-term support levels are 58188 and 58040, with strong support at 57350~57620; short-term resistance levels are 58800 and 59200, with strong resistance at 59650~60050. The key pivot today is 58600~58800; if it cannot be reclaimed, continue to defend. If it breaks below 58150, risk appetite for altcoins will continue to decline.

ETH: Current price around 1575, 24-hour range 1550~1599. The 1-hour structure is slightly more stable than BTC, with the price oscillating around 1570~1580. The middle Bollinger Band is around 1575, with short-term direction being contested. However, the 4-hour middle band is around 1581, and the MA50 is around 1604, indicating that 1580~1605 remains an overhead resistance zone. The daily chart is still in a wide low-range oscillation between 1515 and 1820, with the MACD showing only weak recovery and no strong bullish formation. Short-term support levels are 1556 and 1550, with strong support at 1515~1530; short-term resistance levels are 1580 and 1595, with strong resistance at 1610~1638. The key pivot today remains at 1580; only a hold above this level provides a basis for continued recovery. If it falls below 1555, altcoin elasticity will be significantly suppressed.

Today's Altcoin Correlation Judgment: Today, do not only look at individual coin news for altcoins; first check if BTC and ETH together reclaim their key levels. If BTC holds 58150~58500 and recovers 58800~59200, and ETH simultaneously recovers 1580~1595, then smaller coins will have a short-term recovery window. If BTC breaks below 58150, altcoins should prioritize defense. ETH is the flexibility observation point today. If ETH is weaker than BTC or remains under 1580, altcoins are likely to see rallies fizzle out and diverge.

Public Version Operational Principles: Today, do not chase highs; do not increase risk due to intraday small bounces. Before BTC reclaims 59200~59650 and ETH reclaims 1595~1610, focus on observing strength and controlling positions. For spot traders, the priority is to wait for confirmation of key support levels; do not chase at resistance levels. For the complete watch pool levels and individual coin strategies, refer to the subscribed flash report or group documents.

Risk Disclaimer: The above content is only a market simulation and does not constitute investment advice. Digital assets are highly volatile; pay attention to positions and stop-losses.