This CICC report is interesting—gold has already priced in three or four rate hikes, but does the Fed really dare to raise rates? It’s just hawkish in name but dovish in reality. Once oil prices bring inflation down, gold bulls will likely face a pullback.

CoinWorld news, a recent research report from CICC points out that gold may have already overpriced interest rate hike expectations. The Fed's rate hikes are still not the base case; the gold market may have already overly priced in rate hike expectations, leaving room for a pullback within the year. CICC's macro team believes that pressure on employment and consumption, along with the increasing financing demands of the U.S. AI economy, may make it difficult for the Fed to turn genuinely hawkish, and monetary policy may be "hawkish in name but dovish in fact." Based on a model of interest rate expectations implied by gold prices, the current gold price of around $4,000 per ounce has already fully priced in 3-4 rate hikes, higher than the pricing of rate hike expectations in the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after oil price declines are further reflected in U.S. short-term inflation data, the gold market's pricing of rate hike expectations may be corrected, and there may be opportunities for short-term capital to cover in the futures market.