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CICC: Gold may have overpriced interest rate hike expectations.

DeepFlowTech
Shenchao TechFlow news: On July 01, a latest research report from CICC said that gold may already be priced too high relative to expectations for further interest rate hikes. A Fed rate hike is still not the base case; the gold market may have already over-discounted expectations for rate hikes, leaving some room for a pullback or mean reversion within the year. CICC’s macro team believes that mounting pressures from employment and consumption, along with the growing financing needs of the US AI economy, may make it difficult for the Fed to turn meaningfully more hawkish, and monetary policy could be “hawkish in name but dovish in practice.” Based on a model that infers interest rate expectations from implied interest rates in gold prices, it is estimated that among the current gold price around $4,000 per ounce, the potential for 3-4 rate hikes has already been fully priced in—higher than what is already reflected in rate-hike expectations in the interest rate futures market. Looking ahead, after further declines in oil prices are reflected in US near-term inflation data, the gold market’s pricing of rate-hike expectations may be adjusted, and at that time, short-term funds in the futures market may have an opportunity for position coverage. (Jin Shi)
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