#BTCProbes60KKeySupportLevel

#BTC
If things have been frustrating and difficult so far, get used to the idea that they could become even more challenging before they get better.

Bitcoin is forming its bottom within a range, just as it did during the last two market cycles.

A bottoming range is typically accompanied by low volatility, which is a result of almost non-existent market interest.

The hardest part of such a range isn't necessarily the downward movement, but the possibility that Bitcoin could spend months moving sideways without doing much.

Looking back two cycles ago, Bitcoin took around 120 days to form its bottom. In the last cycle, it took about 63 days, if we only measure the period below $20,000.

Of course, there are multiple scenarios on the table.

The primary scenario is the one I've been discussing for quite some time: a fakeout below $60K, potentially reaching the $48K–$50K area in the worst-case scenario, where we could remain for the next 1 to 4 months.

From a technical perspective, if we lose $60K, the next support lies around $48K–$50K. If that fails, the next level is $40K, and below that comes $30K, and so on.

My opinion remains unchanged until proven otherwise. Out of all the possible scenarios, I still believe the first one has the highest probability—that we've now entered the fakeout phase below $60K, where the bottoming range begins.

What is extremely important (and something many people don't understand) is that it's simply impossible to predict the exact bottom.

These scenarios are only a framework. Whether Bitcoin drops to $50K, $40K, or rallies straight to $100K, the chart is the only thing that will tell us. We simply monitor each key level as it comes.

When it comes to accumulation, every long-term investor accepts an opportunity cost regardless of which scenario ultimately plays out.

The only time we'll be able to say with a high degree of confidence that Bitcoin has formed its bottom is when it reclaims the 50-week Moving Average (MA50), the Noodle, and the EMA Ribbon on the weekly chart. Until then, every lower price level remains a possibility.

Another important level to watch is $65K–$66K. If Bitcoin manages to reclaim and close above that area on the weekly timeframe, it would be the first real sign of strength.

At the same time, for my main scenario to remain valid, the weekly RSI needs to continue forming a bullish divergence and avoid making a new lower low (LL).

If that bullish divergence is invalidated, then this is most likely not the true bottoming range. Instead, the actual bottom would probably form lower, where a new bullish divergence could begin to develop.

Conclusion:
1. I don't expect a V-shaped recovery, although I'd certainly like to see one.
2. Any price below $60K is an easy long-term buy for anyone looking to accumulate.
3. I'm not worried in the slightest, but even I'm starting to feel the frustration... which is completely normal.
4. Whether I buy Bitcoin at $60K, $50K, $48K, or $63K, it won't matter much when it's trading at $200K.