The crypto market may be getting closer to the end of the bear cycle.



Several on-chain signals are starting to point in that direction.

The MVRV indicator for long-term BTC holders has dropped to 1.24 - the lowest level in the past 3 years. Historically, values like this have appeared closer to the end of bear markets.

At the same time, the amount of BTC held by long-term holders has reached a new all-time high, exceeding 16M coins.

Despite the correction, they are not rushing to sell. Instead, they continue to accumulate.

According to the analyst, the decline in MVRV is mainly caused by the price drop, not by mass selling. That means the most confident investors are still not ready to capitulate.

The key level to watch is the average purchase price of long-term holders, around $48.4K.

As long as $BTC trades above this level, the bear-cycle-ending scenario remains valid.

But if BTC falls below it and long-term holders start actively selling, that could signal real capitulation.

MVRV is a metric that compares Bitcoin’s current market value with the average purchase price of coins.$BTC ‌
BTC1.42%
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LeverageWhisperer
· 17h ago
Keep a close watch on this 48.4K cost line; if it breaks, the story changes.
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ArbiterOfFees
· 18h ago
Price falls but no one sells, indicating it's not panic but a washout, a classic bottom characteristic.
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DeepBlueStakingStone
· 18h ago
I agree with the analyst's logic—the worst fear is that experienced retail investors cut their losses, but now they are still adding to their positions.
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RiskParachute
· 18h ago
16M coins held long-term, these guys are really steady, they won't run even when it drops like this.
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SolitaryLampInTheSilentSea
· 19h ago
MVRV 1.24 is indeed interesting, three years ago it also bottomed around this level.
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