Will history repeat itself? Fidelity lists five catalysts to end the crypto bear market.

Author: Micah Zimmerman
Compiled by: AididiaoJP, Foresight News

In a new report, Fidelity points out that Bitcoin’s current crypto winter may be coming to an end — if history repeats itself, as long as one or more major catalysts emerge, including the four-year cycle, clearer regulation, Fed easing, new breakthrough use cases, or a new wave of institutional adoption.

As of the end of June 2026, Bitcoin’s price fluctuated below $60k, down about 53% from its all-time high of over $126.2k in October 2025. A brief rebound occurred from March to May this year, giving bulls a glimmer of optimism, but prices have since fallen again.

Fidelity’s new report argues that the current decline exhibits typical characteristics of a crypto winter, and historical experience points to five factors that could end it.

Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle

Fidelity notes that since 2011, Bitcoin has formed bull market tops and bottoms roughly every four years. The last bear market bottom appeared in November 2022. If the cycle holds, the next potential bottom could be around November 2026. The debate over whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle remains valid is ongoing, with some analysts believing the bear market is nearing its end and others taking a more cautious stance.

The driving force behind this cycle is Bitcoin’s halving mechanism—miner rewards are cut in half every four years, reducing the new supply entering circulation. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, reducing the block reward to 3.125 BTC.

If demand remains stable or grows while supply decreases, prices could rise. However, Fidelity also cautions that cycle lengths vary and should be used as an analytical tool rather than precise trading timing.

Regulatory Factors

Fidelity states that clear rules have often preceded past bull markets. The SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 was a key moment driving Bitcoin to new highs. Currently, Fidelity is focusing on the next major piece of legislation—the CLARITY Act.

The bill aims to divide digital asset regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and CFTC, providing a clear legal framework for the industry. It passed the House in 2025 and advanced to the Senate Banking Committee. A hearing is scheduled for July 17, and the entire crypto industry is watching closely.

Fidelity believes that if the bill becomes law, it could unlock domestic activity that has been hindered by legal uncertainty.

Fed Policy

Fidelity points out a consistent (though correlational) relationship between interest rate cuts and crypto price increases. Looser monetary conditions lower borrowing costs, making investors more willing to take on risk—cryptocurrencies have historically benefited from this. The opposite holds true when rates rise.

In mid-2026, inflation remains a focus, and the Fed’s path remains unclear. Fidelity notes that any price increases could occur well before official rate cut announcements, as markets tend to move ahead.

Breakthrough Use Cases

Fidelity recalls that NFTs and meme coins were strong drivers in the 2019-2021 bull market—a wave of investor interest that few anticipated at the time. In 2026, the three most-watched trends are: tokenization of real-world assets, AI-related crypto infrastructure, and stablecoins—the latter seeing rapid adoption after the passage of the GENIUS Act in 2025.

But Fidelity also leaves room for the possibility that historically, the biggest catalysts have often been unexpected—something new that no one is paying attention to.

Institutional Adoption

Fidelity acknowledges this is no longer a fresh narrative. In 2020, when public companies first disclosed crypto holdings, it sparked a new story and pushed prices to then-record highs. The establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve by the U.S. in March 2025 had a similar effect, pushing Bitcoin above $126k. However, sustained institutional adoption throughout 2026 did not translate into a new bull market.

Nevertheless, Fidelity believes an unexpected move could still change the landscape. For example, if one of the Magnificent Seven companies announced a major Bitcoin holding—something that hasn’t happened since Tesla’s 2021 purchase (most of which has since been sold)—it could create a new narrative. Or a global crisis could drive institutions to use Bitcoin as a hedge, though this has not occurred amid the current Iran conflict.

Fidelity’s analysis reminds the market that while we are in a winter, many historical turning points have come from a combination of similar catalysts. The next phase for Bitcoin and the crypto industry may depend on which of these factors fires first.