Polymarket Data Deep Dive – The "Hidden Signal" Behind a 71% Win Rate

On the Gate prediction market, France's win rate is 71%. But folks, just looking at the win rate isn’t interesting—you need to look at capital flows and the logic behind it.

What does a 71% win rate mean? It means the market believes France’s probability of winning is close to 70%. But it also means nearly 30% of people think France won’t win—either a draw or Sweden pulls an upset. Draw 18%, Sweden 11%. Combined that’s 29%, not a negligible number.

Football365's prediction is quite interesting—France to win + both teams to score, odds 15/8. The logic behind this option: France will definitely score (facing Sweden’s depleted defense), and Sweden also has the ability to score (the trio of Isak, Gyökeres, and Elanga). If you think France will win but not keep a clean sheet, this option is worth noting.

Another option worth noting is France -1.5 handicap, odds 1.80. France winning by 2 or more goals has a decent probability. In the group stage, France scored 10 goals and conceded 2, while Sweden conceded 7. Facing Sweden’s depleted defense, it’s very likely France wins by more than 2 goals.

In terms of score predictions, multiple outlets give France 3-0 Sweden. 3-1 is also frequently mentioned. Sweden’s chance of scoring is not low, but winning is almost impossible.

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