June 30 Night BTC/ETH Mi Shen Strategy

Why did Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rally in the early morning and then pull back for the entire day today? What's the logic and reason? Let me explain it clearly.

First, why did the price rally in the early morning?
The early morning rally was likely sentiment-driven by news—specifically, signs of easing in the US-Iran situation, such as "Iran taking the initiative to request Doha talks." The market traded this expectation on a short-term basis, combined with the technical factor of three successful support retests the day before, giving longs a reason to push upward. This kind of rally is essentially emotional, not a true shift in capital flows.

Why did the market pull back all day today? The core reasons are several overlapping factors:

First, the shoe hasn't actually dropped yet. The Doha talks are "about to take place," not "already concluded." The market was trading on expectations, and once those expectations lacked stronger follow-through signals, capital chose to take profits. This is the most direct reason.

Second, the liquidation pressure from on-chain whales is looming overhead. Today's data shows a 40x leveraged BTC long position has its liquidation price at $57,640, only about 3.5% away from the current price. This kind of hanging liquidation line itself makes market sentiment cautious, and capital is hesitant to chase longs for fear of triggering a cascade of liquidations.

Third, the macro environment is draining liquidity. New Fed Chair Warsh issued a strong hawkish signal, and the market is re-pricing the possibility of an interest rate hike this year. The dollar strengthened, while the euro and Korean won are depreciating passively. A stronger dollar creates a capital suction effect on all risk assets (including cryptocurrencies). This is a deeper, more sustained restraining force, more fundamental than the emotional fluctuations from news.

Fourth, external linkages are dragging things down. The Korean stock market continued to slump today, with Samsung and SK Hynix being sold off despite announcing the largest chip expansion plans in history. This persistent decline in external risk assets transmits to the crypto market through both sentiment and capital channels, with institutional investors' risk appetite overall contracting.

To summarize the logic chain:
The early morning was an emotional rally driven by "news expectations," a short-term trading behavior. The daytime was dominated by three more solid forces: "macro liquidity tightening + whale liquidation pressure + external asset linkage selloff." The gravitational pull of capital flows is stronger than the emotional impact of news, so after the surge, there was no follow-through buying, and the market naturally fell back.

This pattern of "early morning rally, daytime gradual decline" has appeared more than once in Mi Shen's recent posts. Essentially, the market is currently in a relatively weak recovery cycle. Bounces are more technical in nature, and a trend-driven rally requires stronger news or macro conditions to align. #Gate完成141只股票股息派发