Jefferies: The CLARITY Act Faces Key Senate Test, May Increase Crypto Market Volatility

BlockBeats news, June 30, investment bank Jefferies said in its latest report that the US CLARITY Act still faces significant legislative hurdles in the Senate, and legislative progress in the coming weeks may exacerbate crypto market volatility.

Jefferies pointed out that although the bill previously passed the Senate Banking Committee with a bipartisan vote of 15 to 9, with only about 20 legislative days left before the August congressional recess, the Senate still needs to complete bill consolidation, procedural votes, coordination with the House version, and submission to the President for signature, leaving very little time. Polymarket data shows that the probability of the bill passing by the end of 2026 has dropped from 70% in mid-May to 48%.

Jefferies believes that if the bill passes smoothly, it will establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets, prompting banks, asset managers, and exchanges to accelerate the deployment of tokenized assets, custody, staking, lending, and other businesses, and promote more crypto ETFs and crypto infrastructure companies to go public (IPO). If the legislation is delayed, it may prolong regulatory uncertainty, causing traditional financial institutions to slow down their blockchain business advancement.

The report expects that the legislative process will continue to affect the market performance of crypto-related stocks including Circle (CRCL), Coinbase (COIN), Bullish (BLSH), and some crypto assets. Jefferies also pointed out that in the long run, compared to regulatory changes, the greater challenge facing stablecoin issuer Circle remains competition from banks, fintech, and payment companies.