Trillion-dollar ETF "reset! The era of giants is gone, the next era is coming."

One hundred billion yuan was once the entry threshold for top domestic ETFs, but it has quietly become an unreachable "ceiling."

Before the market opened on June 30, the latest net asset value (estimated) of the largest ETF in the industry, the CSI 300 ETF (510300), fell back to 16k yuan.

As of now, the scale of all ETF products in the mainland has dropped below 100 billion yuan.

This also indicates that the ETF industry, which began explosive growth at the start of 2023, has quietly passed a peak and entered a relatively calm development phase.

When scale steps off the main stage, what are the future development trends for the ETF industry?

Which ETF products may buck the trend and grow, and which may face greater pressure?

What changes and impacts will this bring to the A-share market?

There are many new situations worth reviewing.

The "28k Club" Originated 3 Years Ago

The first equity ETF in Chinese history to exceed 45k yuan in scale can be traced back to August 2023.

At that time, the CSI 300 ETF (510300) launched by Huatai-PineBridge (hereinafter referred to as the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF) became the first ETF in the industry to exceed 61k yuan in scale (this product is still the largest public equity product in the industry today).

As a result, a grand spectacle of "multiple vessels competing" for 100-billion-yuan equity ETFs emerged in the mainland fund market.

Fast forward one year later, although the stock market remained sluggish at the time, by mid-2024, the market already had four 100-billion-yuan equity ETFs: the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, E Fund CSI 300 ETF, ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF, and Harvest CSI 300 ETF.

At the same time, by mid-2024, the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF had already surpassed 200 billion yuan.

The "9.24" Rally Became a Catalyst

The sudden "9.24" policy-driven rally became another driving force accelerating the index fund boom.

In the early stages of the "9.24" rally, both institutional and retail investors heavily subscribed to equity ETFs. According to Wind data, on October 8, 2024, the publicly disclosed scale of the largest industry ETF, the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, had already exceeded 430 billion yuan, doubling from mid-2024.

Meanwhile, the number of ETFs in the industry with a scale exceeding 100 billion yuan increased to eight. In addition to several top ETFs tracking the CSI 300 index, these included the ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF, E Fund ChiNext ETF, China Southern CSI 500 ETF, and ChinaAMC SSE STAR 50 ETF, all of which also broke through the 100 billion yuan mark.

At the peak, the combined scale of the top 8 ETFs in the industry alone exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan.

The ETF Boom Spreads Across the Board

The following two years saw the ETF boom evolve from "points" to "lines" and then to "surfaces" in a high-speed development state.

On one hand, the subscription boom for equity ETFs gradually spread from a few core indices to various indices covering specific styles and industries.

The scale of stock funds (where stock ETFs reside) grew from 2.8 trillion yuan at the end of 2023 to 4.5 trillion yuan at the end of 2024, and further to 6.1 trillion yuan by early 2026.

On the other hand, the ETF boom also extended to other areas. For example, the leading commodity ETF, the Huaan Gold ETF, had reached the forefront of challenging the 100 billion yuan mark by early 2026.

The "Index Adjustment Effect" Becomes Increasingly Apparent

The ETF boom has also brought many impacts to the A-share market.

First, the style characteristics of the A-share market have shown a new tendency to favor large and mid-cap stocks.

During the most intense subscription period for broad-based indices in 2024, heavily weighted sectors in the CSI 300 ETF, such as financial stocks, saw significant gains. Large-cap stocks experienced rare periodic excess returns, a characteristic rarely seen in the A-share market.

In this round of tech stock rallies, core companies with large market capitalizations also saw huge gains, far outperforming small and mid-cap companies. This is a feature that emerged after the prosperity of index funds.

Second, the addition or removal of a company from a major index has become hugely influential on its stock price. Overseas, this is known as the "S&P Dow Jones Effect" or "Index Adjustment Effect."

Specifically, when a company is newly included in a major index, its secondary market sees buying from index fund allocations, making it more prone to positive price increases.

Conversely, when a company is removed from a major index, its secondary market experiences adjustments from index fund allocations, and the stock price tends to face more significant downward pressure during this period.

The Adjustment Period Quietly Begins

But this ETF-led boom quietly peaked in the first half of 2026 and entered a phase of rapid cooling.

With the gradual outflow of institutional and retail funds, ETF products entered a period of scale contraction after the New Year in 2026.

This subsequently led to the quiet dissolution of the ETF "100 Billion Club."

As of the end of the first quarter of 2026, only three ETF products in the entire market had a scale exceeding 100 billion yuan: the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF, the E Fund CSI 300 ETF, and the Huaan Gold ETF.

As the mid-year point approached, with the scale of the strongest Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF falling back, the mainland public ETF market finally bid farewell to 100-billion-yuan equity ETFs for now.

Funds Flow from Broad-Based to Niche ETFs

Although the overall scale has declined again, if we look closely at specific products, we can find that there are still some hot spots within this market.

The most popular broad-based products of the past three years have quietly stepped away from center stage. Niche ETFs represented by the technology sector, along with commodity and bond ETFs, have become the new hot spots for funds.

According to Wind statistics, among broad-based ETFs, funds linked to the CSI 300 ETF saw outflows of over 900 billion yuan. The Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF remains one of the largest single products, but its scale has fallen from 422.260 billion yuan at the beginning of the year to less than 100 billion yuan now. The once-closely-following E Fund CSI 300 ETF saw its scale drop to 63.593 billion yuan, and the ChinaAMC CSI 300 ETF scale fell to 42.802 billion yuan. Similarly, the ChinaAMC SSE 50 ETF and the China Southern CSI 500 ETF have seen much of their former glory fade.

At the same time, niche ETFs have seen significant inflows. According to Wind statistics (see chart below), ETFs for securities companies, semiconductors, communication equipment, etc., saw notable inflows. Over the same period, ETFs for overseas markets like Hang Seng Tech and Nasdaq 100, as well as commodity and bond ETFs, also saw their scales increase steadily. This stands in stark contrast to the hundreds of billions of net outflows from broad-based indices.

Wind data shows that as of before the market opened on June 30, the indices with the largest linked ETF scales, following the CSI 300, were AAA Sci-Tech Bonds, SGE Gold 9999, Hang Seng Index, Securities Companies, SSE STAR 50, Nasdaq 100, SSE STAR Chips, and Shanghai Exchange Corporate Bonds.

In terms of the latest scale of individual ETFs, the Huaan Gold ETF became the runner-up, second only to the Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF.

Additionally, bond ETFs such as the HFT CSI Short-Term Financing ETF and the Boshi CSI Convertible and Exchangeable Bond ETF, as well as industry niche ETFs like the Harvest SSE STAR Chip ETF, the CSI All-Share Securities Companies ETF (Guotai), and the CSI All-Share Communication Equipment ETF (Guotai), now have scales significantly exceeding some of the top broad-based ETFs.

This leads to the same conclusion:

The ETF market has moved away from the state where a few broad-based behemoths dominated the scene. It is shifting toward a multi-center pattern where money market, bonds, commodities, technology, and industry themes work together. A more diverse, fundamentally oriented (rather than scale-oriented) ETF development ecosystem is being nurtured.

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        Market risk exists, and investment should be made with caution. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not take into account individual users' specific investment objectives, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, views, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Any investment based on this article is at your own risk.