Bitcoin has a $4.4 billion oversupply, with weak institutional demand dragging on recovery prospects.

Mars Finance News: On June 30, even though Bitcoin has recently stabilized around $60,000, the outlook for a rebound remains bleak. Glassnode data shows that this month Bitcoin ETFs have sold 71,600 BTC (worth more than $4 billion), setting a historical record for the largest single-month redemptions. Meanwhile, corporates and digital asset custodians have only added 7,500 BTC; combined with the daily increase in new mining supply, the net shortfall is about 77,000 BTC (approximately $4.4 billion), creating a notable “supply glut.”

Against this backdrop, Strategy (MSTR), the largest Bitcoin digital asset company, announced a Bitcoin monetization plan on Monday, authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin, mainly to establish a $2.55 billion US dollar reserve to cover preferred stock dividend and interest expense. Analysts believe that if capital flows fail to turn positive and institutional demand does not recover, any price rebound could be short-lived. The only factor currently supporting Bitcoin is that the forex market holds a bullish stance on US dollar positions.

In other developments, UK regulators have lowered the capital buffer requirement for stablecoin issuers from 2% to 1%. The 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen to -0.90, the lowest since the end of 2022, posing a challenge to the “arbitrage trade” theory. International oil prices are on track for their largest quarterly decline since 2020, and the market is focused on the progress of the US-Iran talks.