To be honest, if the mainstream coins continue to stay in the current bearish trend, the entire crypto market layout will sooner or later be thoroughly reshuffled, and a lot of funds have already turned to the US stock market.

Take SanDisk and Micron and the like as examples: as long as the US stocks open, the market moves with clean, decisive swings, and the trading efficiency is very high—there’s far less of that winding, circuitous washout manipulation. By contrast, for Bitcoin and Ethereum, I actually hope these two mainstream coins can hold up and push the market higher; let the whales release some liquidity appropriately, don’t keep watching retail investors to keep them getting harvested back and forth—at the very least, you have to give everyone a little piece of meat.

Now if we go back and dig deeper into the recent price action of mainstream coins, and combine it with the current funding rate, it becomes clear: above are all the long positions that are trapped!!! This round of trapped longs isn’t exactly the same as the previous decline from 2400. It’s the rebound that rallied to 1848, where another batch of longs entered to bottom-fish—positions that were added during the second rebound phase.

Right now, the market is hovering around 1600. Compared with the high of the previous counter-rally, at most it’s only close to 300 points, which shows that this downside move still hasn’t done enough. From the recent candlestick trend, you can see that the whales won’t easily let this trapped lot exit; they must wash out the batch of longs that chased.

In addition, when judging across different timeframe levels, the market currently shows absolutely no signs of stopping the fall and stabilizing. The chances are very high that the subsequent price will continue to break below 1500, and the long positions trapped above 1800 will very likely continue to be cleaned out.

Given the overall chart, for intraday swing trading, my core idea still leans toward setting up short positions on rebounds. The Ethereum short entered around 1600 last night has just come to around 1550. I’m reminding everyone again to take some profits, keep the core position, and place a stop-loss at break-even to avoid getting hurt while you’re playing.

If the break-even stop gets swept out, then afterward wait for the price to rebound to the 1660–1675 range, and re-enter to set up short positions (the trapped long positions piled up above will be very difficult to unwind in the short term—catching rebounds for short setups in line with the trend will be more stable). $ETH

If the market first dumps quickly, then I’ll update in real time when a suitable opportunity to go long appears next, and provide the corresponding entry plan for everyone.