June 30, 2026

Everyone knows we are deep in a bear market right now, so what might concern us most is when the bear market will end and how low Bitcoin will go. Today I saw Jiang Zhuoer's prediction; he uses the four-year cycle law, which is based on Bitcoin's four-year cycle. Although this prediction model may not be accurate, the four-year cycle has been valid since Bitcoin's inception. I recall that in the last bull market, many said Bitcoin's pricing power had shifted to Wall Street and the four-year cycle might fail. At that time, I said we should still treat it cautiously, after all, the four-year cycle is Bitcoin's iron rule, and we shouldn't bet against it until it fails.

According to the bear market timeline derived from the four-year cycle law, it will last until October this year, which is exactly four months from today. This timing aligns with my expectations. Besides the timing from the four-year cycle law, it has also been almost a year since the peak decline, and the recent obvious sideways movement with high volatility oscillations is a sign of bottom accumulation. Additionally, everyone may have noticed that the market is now filled with talk that Bitcoin will fall below $50k. This is also a typical feature of the late stage of a bear market. Therefore, even if Bitcoin ultimately breaks below $50k, it won't stay there for long. Every low point appears in the form of a "pin" (wick), and this time it will likely be the same.

Of course, predictions are just predictions and may not be accurate. Just like the recent World Cup matches, humans love to predict the future, but many end up losing. The significance of this prediction for us is, when