Lately I keep seeing people directly equating stablecoin issuance with ETF inflows, which is pretty subtle. Does an increase in supply really mean outside money is coming in? It could just be people inside the market rotating positions, or some exchange adjusting its reserves.

In short, correlation looks like causation, but there are actually hundreds of variables in between. I used to make that mistake too—seeing a lot of MEV bots and assuming on-chain activity was booming, only to realize after replicating the data a few times that sometimes it's just a routing pool with poor liquidity, and the bots sniffed it out.

Same with blockchain games—when the token price drops, people scream about runaway inflation, but if you think about it, the economic model was already hollowed out when studios entered in waves; the price drop is just the final symptom. Getting into the habit of breaking down steps is more important than getting into the habit of jumping to conclusions. That's all for now.