Mr. Berg's Analysis》Resonance of Extreme Valuations: BTC Long-Term Holder Cost Approaches 49.7k, Three Models Converge

Using Glassnode's "LTH-Realized Price (Long-Term Holder Average Cost)" to track Bitcoin's cycle bottom, this indicator has maintained a 100% bottom-fishing success rate to date. The latest data shows LTH-RP has reached 49,700, having risen nearly 10k points since February this year, gradually approaching the two models of Realized Price and Cointime Price; Mr. Berger suggests that once the three resonate together, it could signal a true cycle bottom. This article is written by Mr. Berger (@market_beggar) and is a collaboration column for the Dynamic Zone Dynamic Trend Academy project.
(Previous background: Mr. Berger's analysis: BTC bear market progress, on the final mile)
(Background supplement: BTC long-term holding circulation ratio surges to 75%! Analyst Murphy: the bear market may be bottoming out)

Key Summary

• LTH-RP (BTC Long-Term Holder Average Cost) currently stands at 49,700, one of Mr. Berger's four deep bear market bottom-fishing models, maintaining a 100% bottom-fishing success rate to date.
• During the same period, the Realized Price is 53,457 and the Cointime Price is 51,868; the values of these three deep bear market valuation models are gradually converging.
• Mr. Berger believes that if BTC experiences a "final small shiver" and breaks below the resonance position of the three models, it will signify the arrival of a true cyclical bottom zone.

Mr. Berger's old friends may recall: LTH-RP is one of the four deep bear market bottom-fishing models, and compared to the other three, its notably faster upward pace is a characteristic.

LTH-RP, also known as "BTC Long-Term Holder Average Cost," is a classic indicator in on-chain analysis, and to this day, it maintains a 100% bottom-fishing success rate.

Current LTH-Realized Price = 49,700; it has risen nearly 10k points since February this year | Data source: Glassnode, Chart by: Mr. Berger (@market_beggar)

📊 Current LTH-RP = 49,700

It is worth noting that, looking at the latest data of the deep bear market valuation bottom-fishing models:
➡️ Realized Price = 53,457
➡️ Cointime Price = 51,868

Following this pace, I believe that if the "final small shiver" I anticipate does occur in the future, there is a high probability that the LTH-RP at that time will resonate with the values of the above two models; and once resonance occurs, as long as the BTC price falls below this resonance position, it means we have arrived at a true cyclical bottom zone.

It is not hard to imagine how panicked the market sentiment would be, even flooded with bearish news, should BTC experience another wave of decline, but trading based on emotions is not what a qualified trader should do. Only by following data can we find the correct direction in the K-line trends dominated by dopamine.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is LTH-RP (BTC Long-Term Holder Average Cost)?

LTH-RP, also known as BTC Long-Term Holder Average Cost, is a classic indicator in Glassnode's on-chain analysis, reflecting the average cost basis of long-term holders. Mr. Berger lists it as one of the four deep bear market bottom-fishing models, which maintains a 100% bottom-fishing success rate to date, currently at 49,700.

What signal does the "resonance" of the three models represent?

When LTH-RP (49,700), Realized Price (53,457), and Cointime Price (51,868) gradually converge and overlap, this is resonance. Mr. Berger believes that if the BTC price breaks below the resonance position, it will be a signal of a true cyclical bottom zone.

This article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; please carefully assess risks before investing.