Bitcoin is stabilizing around $60k, but a $4.4 billion supply overhang is like an invisible ceiling, suppressing any imagination of a rebound.

Glassnode data shows that ETFs have sold 71,600 BTC this month, setting a record for the largest single-month redemptions; corporations and custodians only added 7,500 BTC. Excluding daily mining supply, the net shortfall is about 77,000 BTC, equivalent to $4.4 billion. Strategy authorized the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin on Monday to build USD reserves for dividend payments — the corporate Bitcoin accumulation narrative is unraveling.
Behind the supply overhang is a structural ebb in institutional demand. ETF funds continue to flow out, MVRV is approaching the cost basis, and long-term holders are accumulating but cannot hedge against the ETF selling pressure. The only bullish support for the market comes from the high correlation with the USD/JPY exchange rate, but this correlation has dropped to -0.90, a new low since 2022.
The risk is: if fund flows do not turn positive, any rebound could be a bear trap. $4.4 billion is not a small number; it means the market needs an equivalent amount of buyers to absorb it. In the current macro environment, AI capital siphoning, US stock volatility, and regulatory divergence are all diverting liquidity.
A rebound needs a catalyst, but supply overhang is the reality.
$btc #defi #etf #ai #regulation