The sharp drop in the early session did not continue. In the European session, the price rebounded and broke above 4020. The short-term structure is biased toward a rebound. Pay close attention to the effectiveness of the 3975 support.

 

1. Trend Review

Early session: The price quickly dropped from 4020 to 3940, showing a sharp drop trend.
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European session: The decline did not continue; instead, it rebounded and broke through 4020. The high reached around 4030, forming a V-shaped micro reversal, with the low moving higher and the high being broken.

2. Ongoing Market Outlook

If 3975 (the start point of the European session move) is not broken downward: In the evening, it will most likely retrace to retest the support and then rebound. The downside target is 3975, and the rebound targets in sequence are 4006, 4030, and 4050.
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If 3975 is effectively broken downward: The rebound structure will be destroyed, and the market will return to a downtrend.

3. Key Levels

Support levels: 3975 (core defense level), 3940 (previous low).
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Resistance levels: 4050, 4080, 4100 (strong resistance on the 4-hour timeframe). After a breakout, the 4130-4150 range can be considered.

4. Trading Logic

Before 3975 is broken, focus on a “buy the dip” approach. If the price pulls back to the 3975-3980 area, you can try long positions, with a stop loss below 3970. Targets are 4030-4050.
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If 3975 breaks, exit long positions and follow the trend to go short. The targets are 3940-3920.
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