Bitcoin support zone: First key support at the psychological level of 59000-60k USD; strong support around 55000/52000 USD, if broken effectively, it will open up deeper retracement space;

Resistance zone: Short-term first resistance at 63000-64000 USD, only if it holds can the short-term trend be repaired; further strong resistance at 67000, 70k USD;

• Indicator characteristics: Daily/weekly moving averages are in bearish alignment, short-term moving averages are suppressing, MACD remains in a bearish range, some cycles show oversold/bottom divergence signals, there is a demand for oversold bounce, but when volume is insufficient, the bounce is mostly corrective and lacks sustainability; RSI hovers at low levels, prone to sudden pumps and dumps, false breakouts;

Market characteristics: Volatility remains high, frequent wicks, concentrated liquidations in futures, extremely low margin for error in intraday short-term trading.

Scenario Outlook & Key Risks

1. Short-term (1-2 weeks): Mainly range-bound consolidation, repeated battles around the 60,000 level; only after a volume-backed hold above 64,000 and ETF inflows can a corrective rebound be expected; a sustained break below 59,000 with volume will further test below 55,000, amplifying bearish sentiment and increasing the risk of cascading liquidations;

2. Medium-term (1-3 months): Key focus on the Federal Reserve meeting outcome, the pace of capital return, and regulatory developments; only with a macro shift to dovishness and the return of institutional funds will there be a chance to return to the 70,000 level; if the macro environment remains hawkish, regulations tighten, and ETFs continue to see outflows, the bottoming process will be prolonged and downside space will expand;

3. Core risks: High-leverage liquidation cascades, black swan policies/hacker events, a stock market crash correlation, and liquidity crunch leading to short-term extreme price swings #0成本拿2股SK海力士