Carnival or trap? The "bull-bear showdown" ahead of the Q2 earnings season in U.S. stocks

U.S. stocks recently staged a thrilling "deep V" rebound, with chip stocks and large-cap tech stocks making a strong comeback. But beneath the surface of prosperity, Wall Street is engaged in a fierce battle:

Bull camp (Goldman Sachs/Bank of America/UBS): Q2 earnings expectations have been continuously raised to nearly 20%! The AI dividend is shifting from "hardware monopoly" to "a hundred flowers blooming." Besides Nvidia and other chip giants, the return on AI capital in traditional industries such as power and industrials is significantly deepening, making the bottom support for the U.S. stock bull market increasingly solid.

Bear camp (Morgan Stanley/J.P. Morgan): Beware of the "capital expenditure trap"! If cloud service providers continue to pour hundreds of billions into hardware without downstream applications proving that AI generates real cash, tech stocks are highly susceptible to sharp corrections after earnings season. In addition, surging energy prices are "draining" the real economy and exacerbating the haze of inflation.

Prediction markets show that the S&P 500 is likely to rise moderately to the 7800-8000 range by the end of the year. In the upcoming Q2 earnings season, the scale of AI spending beyond the hyperscale cloud providers and the return on investment will determine the direction of U.S. stocks in the second half of the year!

U.S. stock market #宏观经济 # Artificial intelligence #财报季 # Investment logic