Data Week Sends a Major Alert! Nonfarm Payrolls Arrive Early, Bulls and Bears Tear It Apart

This week’s nonfarm payrolls were released early on Thursday due to a U.S. holiday. Multiple risks are piling up together, and disagreements across the market are intensifying—do not open new positions frequently to bet on one side.

Funds and Sentiment Are Severely Out of Sync

The Fear and Greed Index falls to 12, entering an extreme fear zone. Retail investors panic and cut losses; institutions, however, accumulate against the trend. SharpLink previously increased its holdings at a low price by nearly 40,000 ETH. Samsung and SK, with a joint deployment of trillion-level funds, are rolling out AI chip plans—large and small funds behave in completely opposite ways.

Three Major Risks Pressuring the Market

1. On Tuesday, the U.S.-Iran negotiations in Doha: the Strait conflict risk is an ever-present hidden factor that can stir market sentiment at any time;
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2. On Thursday, nonfarm payrolls directly affect the Fed’s interest-rate expectations, causing coins, gold, and the U.S. dollar to move sharply in tandem;
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3. At the end of June, institutions rebalance their portfolios and liquidity tightens; intraday rises and falls are just capital noise, with no trend significance.

Historical Reference

When FGI is below 20, there are opportunities for medium- to long-term positioning. But in 2022, after the index touched single digits, the BTC market (the “big pie”) continued to fall, and combined with geopolitical variables, the risk of bottom-fishing is high.

Trading Strategy

Keep your current positions unchanged, stay on the sidelines throughout. After the nonfarm payrolls land on Thursday and risks clear, then reassess the trend and adjust your positions.

How are you planning to control your positions this week to deal with the choppy market?#Solana生态ANSEM暴涨 #Strategy拟回购股票涨超12% #AAVE涨超13% $BTC $ETH