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Yesterday, the US stock market as a whole was indeed quite exciting. After a high open, the Nasdaq took a sharp dive, then rebounded strongly in a very short time, finally closing up 2.49%. AI hardware and semiconductors also performed very well.
I think this pullback is basically coming to an end. I hope I won't be proven wrong.
At the beginning of the month, the first wave of pullback was close to 10%, and at the end of the month, the second wave was around 6%. These two pullbacks have already digested most of the previous bullish optimism, which is the momentum for the next upward move.
This can also be seen from the RSI indicator of the Q Nasdaq, currently around 50, neither overbought nor oversold. Sentiment has cooled down significantly compared to a month ago, but the index price is basically still at the same level.
Most importantly, next month marks the start of the US earnings season, and the market's trading focus will shift from the macro level to company fundamentals.
I have always mentioned that the US stock market is a market where fundamentals outweigh everything. The macro environment is certainly important, but as long as company fundamentals are validated, meet or even exceed market expectations, the market will certainly reward stock prices and offset the impact of macro factors.
The most noteworthy thing during earnings season is big tech. As long as their revenue growth continues to remain strong and capital expenditure does not show signs of slowing down, there won't be major issues for the Nasdaq and the AI semiconductor sector.
In addition, the mechanical selling pressure from pension rebalancing at the end of June is also coming to an end. After July, there will be a new capital allocation cycle, which is also a positive factor.
Looking back at the entire month of volatile pullbacks, I think these are opportunities to add positions and buy the dip. For the US stock market, don't expect a drop of more than 20% in a short period of time; that's unrealistic.
After a continuous rise, a pullback of around 10% followed by continued gains—this is the norm for the US stock market.