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The Codex analysis is excellent; there's no need to do your own research and check the data.
At most, just verify it and avoid making big mistakes.
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Baseline scenario: 58.9k–62.5k, oscillating weakly.
BTC has still not broken through the 60k resistance. Whether ETF outflows stop is the primary variable; however, crowded shorts, MSTR's rebound, and the initial turnaround of ETFs on June 29 increase the risk of shorting at low levels.
Bullish trigger conditions:
BTC holds above 60k USD, breaks through 60,600–61,000 USD, then recovers 61,800–62.5k USD; simultaneously, on June 29, ETFs are confirmed to have net inflows or at least significantly narrowed outflows, Warsh is not hawkish, and the Strait of Hormuz situation does not escalate. If met, the short-term target is 64k–65,000 USD.
Bearish trigger conditions:
BTC breaks below 58.9k USD and loses 58,000–58,300 USD; simultaneously, IBIT shows large outflows after being fully updated, JOLTS/ADP/Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations, oil prices surge, or MSTR gives back gains. If met, the downside target is 55,000 USD, with an extreme case of 52,000–53,800 USD.
Maximum tail risk:
Renewed large-scale ETF outflows + strong US employment data + hawkish Warsh + escalation in the Strait of Hormuz + rising expectations of Strategy selling BTC. This combination would render technical support ineffective.
Maximum inverse risk:
ETF confirmed to turn into inflows + MSTR/STRC stabilizing + oil prices continuing to fall + BTC reclaiming 62.5k. Due to crowded shorts, a rapid short squeeze to around 64k is possible.