Nomura: Rising vigilance against forex intervention caps USD/JPY gains

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Golden Finance reported that on June 29, four analysts from Nomura's global foreign exchange strategy team stated in a research report that the dollar-yen pair's gains remained limited due to heightened vigilance over possible intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market. They said: “Based on past intervention events, although we note that the sample size is extremely limited, we observe that as the dollar-yen pair approaches the 163 level, the likelihood of intervention by Japan's Ministry of Finance is increasing.” These analysts estimated the 163 level based on data from two rounds of yen-buying interventions in the same year in 2022 and 2024. Data from the London Stock Exchange Group showed the dollar was largely flat at 161.79 yen.
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