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Last day of Q2. Yesterday, the Dow closed above 52K for the first time, and the Nasdaq also crawled out of five consecutive losing days — a 2% rebound looks nice, but how much of that is window dressing for the quarter-end? Today's close will be the real Q2 final.
Last night, the Supreme Court blocked Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook by a 5-4 vote, a ruling more significant than most think. It confirms the independence of Fed governors, meaning it's not that easy for Warsh to push a more hawkish path. Another layer of uncertainty is added to the interest rate path.
A lot of data today: Chicago PMI + Consumer Confidence. Iran seems to be on a temporary ceasefire, but Deutsche Bank put it bluntly — "The fact that Washington is willing to use force means the geopolitical tail risk is still there." Crude oil up 2% is no random move.
#Fed #美股 #利率