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OIL – WTI climbed 1.36 percent to 70.17 dollars, while Brent added 0.99 percent to 72.70 dollars. Natural gas fell 2.99 percent to 3.181. US gasoline prices remain elevated despite the recent correction in crude oil .
Oil opened higher as investors began questioning whether last week's selloff had become detached from reality. The market appears to be pricing in a diplomatic resolution that remains highly uncertain .
An interesting development emerged overnight. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi has denied reports that technical US-Iran talks will take place in Doha this week. According to Tehran, no such meetings are scheduled under the current memorandum .
This directly contradicts earlier statements from President Trump, who posted on Truth Social that Iran had requested a meeting and that talks would take place on Tuesday in Doha .
Multiple media sources had reported that US and Iranian officials agreed to pause mutual attacks and would hold technical negotiations in Doha on June 30, focusing on Strait of Hormuz passage issues . Axios reported the meeting was originally scheduled in Switzerland with a nuclear focus, but was relocated to Doha due to escalating tensions and differences over Hormuz interpretation .
That raises an important question. How do you price a diplomatic breakthrough when the two sides cannot even agree on whether negotiations are taking place?
Markets dislike uncertainty. Yet today's oil prices continue to assume clarity where very little exists. The only confirmed fact is that the Pentagon has not reported any attacks on Saturday or Sunday, and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz appears to be proceeding .
According to US officials quoted by Reuters and Axios, technical negotiations are expected to proceed covering all areas of the memorandum, with both sides currently in a temporary truce and vessels free to transit . However, Tehran insists no meetings with US representatives are planned, only consultations with Qatari officials about US commitments .
The biggest risk may no longer be supply. It may be confidence. When confidence becomes the commodity in short supply, volatility usually follows.
US crude inventories fell by 2.3 million barrels last week, while gasoline demand showed signs of seasonal recovery . These fundamentals support the recent price bounce, but they are now overshadowed by geopolitical confusion.
Key levels to watch:
WTI resistance at 71.50 and 72.00, support at 69.50 and 68.00
Brent resistance at 74.00 and 75.00, support at 72.00 and 71.00
The coming sessions will be critical. If the meeting proceeds as Washington suggests, the market may interpret it as de-escalation and price in additional downside. If Tehran's denial proves accurate and no talks occur, or if further military escalation takes place, oil could spike sharply higher. Traders should brace for volatility either way.
DYOR ☑️
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